No Limit Strategy #2: Sizing Bluffs Effectively

Bluffing is a critical skill in poker. And misunderstood by most players.

When people think of No Limit Hold'em, they often think of the WPT or WSOP where they see professional making daring bluffs with 6 high for their entire stacks, or make a loose call on the river to snap a bluff off. Then the people watching go out and play and lose their entire stack.

They often wonder why. They think "Well, it worked for them. Why not me?"

The answer to that question is so incredibly complex. The things that affect the success of a bluff could fill a book.

I think bluffing is the most complicated part of poker in No Limit Hold'em. And one of the most critical skills.

It's easy to beat someone who never bluffs. Whenever they check, they will fold every time they have nothing. Anytime they bet you just fold. If you have an extremely strong hand, you know they have some sort of hand, so it's easy to extract value. A person who never bluffs is extremely exploitable. And the basis of the game is exploiting suboptimal play in order to win money.

Bluffing is a very simple concept. You try to represent a strong hand in order to get your opponent to fold a hand better than your own. Still it's a bit more complicated then that.

The goal of a bluff isn't necessarily to win the pot. It's to turn a profit, and you will only need to win the pot a certain percentage of the time to make that work.

If the goal was just to win the pot, the most effective way to do that would be to push all in (most of the time). However, doing that will actually cost you money in the long run.

Bluffing makes money by forcing them to fold a hand that has equity. When you do this you make a profit, because all of the equity they would normally have goes to you. Sometimes you actually want a worse hand then yours to fold, because they actually have the correct odds to call you and attempt to draw out. For example say you have AA and they have a gutshot straight flush draw. They have 1.5:1 odds to see the next two cards. Despite being a favorite you actually prefer them to fold, so you receive the entire pot, as opposed to only part of it. (The part that your equity would entitle you to, if you ran it an infinite number of times)

The profitability of a bluff is rather straight forward. I am going to ignore future table image (known as metagame) in your expected value calculation.

Bluff size = $B
Current Potsize = $CP
net profit when called after bluff = $AP

Profit = ($CP) x (% chance your opponent folds) + ($AP) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your opponent's equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% chance your opponent raises)

In layman's terms. The profitability of a bluff is determined by how often your opponent folds, how often they call and you win anyways, and how often they raise. (assuming you fold when they raise)

Of course a river bluff is simpler. Either it works or it doesn't.

Profit = $CP * (% of time opponent folds) - $B*(% time opponent calls)

Because of this lack of equity on future streets, river bluffs need to be more succesful than ones made on the flop or turn. However since the pot is larger it does tend to work well, especially if you have been betting earlier.

Example time. Let's say you have a flush draw with exactly 20% chance to win on the river.

You make a pot sized bet of $10 into a $10 pot. There will be no action on the river.
You win $10 immediately when it succeeds. You think this will happen about 50% of the time.
You will win $30 when the flush comes in which will be 20% of the time. But you are only called 25% of the time.You will be raised 25% of the time and will fold when raised.

So.
When your bluff succeeds, you win $10 immediately. This happens 50% of the time.
When your bluff is raised, you lose $10 immediately. This happens 25% of the time.
When your bluff is called, which it will be 25% of the time, you will win net $20 20% of the time, and lost $10 the other 80%.

$10*0.5-$10*0.25+$20*0.25*0.2-$10*0.25*0.8 = $1.5

Your bluff will show a $1.50 profit each time you make it.

Now, these numbers were just picked out of thin air. The real skill in bluff is determining what the numbers really are. The best you can really do is estimate, but the better you estimate the more you will win.

There is of course another entire realm to bluffing, your opponent. But this part is important. Because if you think your opponent will fold his hand to a bluff, that doesn't mean a huge overbet bluff is profitable. The size of our bluff is just as critical as when you decide to bluff. The two parts together are what bluffing is really about. And the one I just showed you is the easy part to learn.

See you across the felt.
Bryce

Progress Post #10: The most degenerate home game ever! Courtesy of Winston

I wrote this as I was playing, and then put it online at a later date. If my thoughts seem a bit jumbled that's why.
February 21st - Update. I played a home game last night. I won $237. Nothing extremely notable, I caught a 2 outter on Winston for a good sized pot (JUSTICE!), and Nate and Rob were stacking chips. I got pretty lucky I also outflopped AA with 88 in a huge preflop pot.

---

I'm at the home game right now. Mike, Marshall and other people are making fun of me for writing this. lol, they'll probably end up reading this anyways. Nate is whining he still hasn't gotten mentioned. Congratulations Nate, read the line previous to this one.

I'm not playing right now. I took a break and got some food. Chipotle obv.

It's been a pretty swingy month so far. I was down about $1,000 then I took down another tournament. This time on FTP. $24+2 6m KO NLHE tourney. $2,795 for first. I got 10 KOs along the way for another $40. Jeff was complaining that me winning that took my bankroll above his. lol, out of everyone sweating me on the final table he was the only person who was rooting for me to lose.

Since my last post, Updated as of February 21st.
Live Cash Games: -$127
Online cash games: +$382.14
Online Tournaments: +$2244.4

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$556 (I swear one of these days, I'll actually win a monster pot when I'm a monster favorite. Wait till you see this one.)
Online cash games: +$359.87.
Online Tournaments: +$4662.4

I ran pretty good in the tournament. I plan to withdraw about $2,000.

LOL Nate just overbet pushed the flop with AA and got called by top pair and held up. Nice play Nate, nice play. Excellent value push, being drunk is definitely +EV.

Our group for tonight includes:
SK Winston
Mitch Stephan
Nate (the drunk guy) Zach
Another Nate Alex
Marshall Jeff
Mike Me

Aki is watching as always, and Rob decided to just deal tonight.

As usual the game has turned into a degenerate drunken fest of gambling. Who am I kidding?
It starts that way. Nate and I played Ro-Sham-Bo for $5 while we were waiting for the game to start. I trashed him 3-1 best out of 5.

I'm playing again now. Mitch had to go back and work in SK's spot. What a degen. Lol.

I get TT vs 99 vs AA on a T9x flop. I triple through Winston and Marshall and propel my stack up to over $200. I'm only in for $40.

Oh man, I got him.
I just won a 9.5 buyin pot of Winston. With K3o. Preflop.

I straddled, there is some action and then Winston makes a monster push for like $200+.
It's folded around to me and I have a sick feeling I'm good here. I think about his hand range. He doesn't tend to push in unraised pots at all, but I doubt he do it with AA. The 72o rule is in effect, so I have to consider that. He also loves 93o (cause he bluffed with it against me before). 63o (cause he keeps hitting straights with that hand), and T8o (the Chuck Norris). I figure there might be some other random chaff, but I think since I dominate 2 of the 4 hands I think are most likely, I decide to call. He also told me he'd give me $25 to call him, which makes me think he was trying to convince me to fold. I probably shouldn't have wrote that. Now, it's gonna be a stupid mind game next time he does it.

I hold up, he has 72o, and I scoop a huge pot.

Some action goes down, SK makes some sick plays that will be described in detail later.

I just folded AQs with the nut flush. Wow. I am really playing on it tonight. I think my hand reading skills are like really good at the moment.

Winston straddled, Nate minraises, I decide to flat call on the button. Winston calls. The flop is Th7s6s. Winston bets out for $5, Nate calls, I call. Turn is the 5s, and I'm like nice, I got there. Winston bets $15, Nate raises to $50, and I get a sick feeling that I'm no good here. I can't just fold my hand and just calling seems terrible there, so I raise to $100 which puts Nate all in. Winston thinks and calls.
I immediately put him on a straight flush.
I can't explain it. I mean 9s8s makes perfect sense given the way he played it, it's just so sick. How can I put him on one hand?

Nate calls all in.

The river is a 6h pairing the board. Winston pushes for $300+ and I fold my cards face up. I call out Winston with a straight flush. Winston flips over 9s8s, Nate has JsTs.

Megacooler much?

Ugh, Winston got me again. Reraised pot I have AJs, he has AQs. Flop is AJ5. Turn is Q.

Winston: Standard.

He's watching me type this now.

and... this is the big hand of the night. I open to $3 with KK. Winston reraised to $8, and I decided to just call to try to trap him. The flop comes out Kh Jh 5d.
I check.
Winston bets $15.
I raise to $45
Winston reraises to $75.
I reraise to $275.
He thinks for a while and finally calls.

I consider pushing all in in the dark. I probably should've.
The turn is an Ace. I push for another $325. Winston thinks and thinks and thinks. He says he has AK. I don't say anything. He eventually calls.
Me: I got you beat for now.
Winston looks at the river card.
Winston: Ship it.
Me: Fuck.

He scoops a $1,200 pot in a $0.25/$0.50. So sick.

Rob wants me to say he practically pissed his pants when he heard me go off.

Winston feels sorry, so he gives me $200. But he says he's gonna take it all back. And he does, 3 hands later.

SK gets an entire paragraph dedicated to him.
First he folds 98 on a JsTs7h. The sick part is Winston would've caught on him if he played it out.

Then I read him perfectly, and he shows me QQ on a KQQ flop. I folded KJ lol.

Then he makes a terrible laydown and check/folds AK to me on an Ace high flop. I would've runner runnered him. Somehow he manged to come out up some money anyways.

Awards for the night:
Sickest fold: SK folding 98o with the nutz. LOL
Runner up goes to me for folding the nut flush.

Biggest bad beat: Winston Clearly.

I gotta say despite what happened, I felt I played extremely well. Near perfect. I got away from lots of second best hands and snapped bluffs. IMO, I feel I should've left with like 1200+, but the forces of the universe conspired against me. Well there is always tonight. I got midterms coming up, so I won't have an update for a while.

Soft Skills #1: Understanding The True Nature Of Poker

In poker, there are two kinds of players. Those at war with luck and those that embrace it.

THSpanda8: have u ever read a book called fooled by randomness by taleb
modoaddict: nope
modoaddict: is it good?
THSpanda8: its a good book about the stock market but the concepts apply really well to poker also. its a pretty famous finance book
modoaddict: hm
modoaddict: interesting
THSpanda8: haha this is a one sentence summary of the book but tell me if it doesnt sound more like poker to u
THSpanda8: "the book looks at egotistical wall street types who experience temporary success and huge bonuses, but dont understand that they are only temporarily lucky. Shortly thereafter they are out of work and cannot understand why."
modoaddict: LOL
THSpanda8: translate to:
THSpanda8: "the book looks at egotistical poker players who experience temporary success and huge wins, but dont understand that they are only temporarily lucky. Shortly thereafter they are broke and cannot understand why."

Modoaddict is my screen name.
THSpanda8 is Jeff. He got mentioned a few posts back.

Texas Hold'Em is a game of luck. In any given hand, I can be dealt AA, and so can you. Who gets it is entirely luck. When you have AdKd, whether or not you will improve to beat QQ is entirely luck. Everyone knows this. Poker is inherently a game about luck and catching cards.

Except it's a bit more than that. Because the game is more than just having cards. It's about what you do with them.

Texas Hold'Em is a game of skill. The best players consistantly win tournaments and make a living off a game where each person could be dealt the winning hand at any given time. It's entirely luck when it comes down to who is dealt AA. But it's entirely skill that determines how much you win or lose with it. And furthermore, sometimes the most skilled player will lose more than the worst player in a given hand. Sometimes the worse player will win more, but the goal is to play optimally regardless of the outcome.

This is the reality of poker. In any given hand the best player can win and the worst player comes out on top. Yet keep doing it enough time, and its the better player who has all the chips.

In the short term, luck is king.
In the long term, skill is king.

You will often hear about people who complain about getting bad beat. Who got coolered. Who whine about this and that. Some people will say they shouldn't have done this or should've done that because so and so card came. These people are results oriented. That is not the proper way to think about poker.

I see it differently. In poker, a winning players always plays for the long run. They want to make the move that produces the greatest profit if they were to do it over and over again.

In my mind, when I get AA all in preflop, the hand ended. The board can come any 5 cards and which cards fall is PURE LUCK. No one has control over that. It doesn't affect whether or not I played the hand well. So it's irrelevant. Now that doesn't mean be an emotionless robot. But what it does mean, is to not let the cards that fall affect your play. When you got your chips in the middle, you've down what you could. Luck will balance out eventually. Just make sure you get there. Keep your head on straight. Always remember, that no matter what cards fall, you can only analyze how you played before that.

Remember it's a two way street. Don't get cocky because you're winning. Look back. Did you get lucky? Running good is more than just picking up cards. It means connecting with draws more often than normal. Flopping top pair more often than normal. Them missing more often than normal. This is all running good. The AIM conversation is about poker players who think they are extremely talented. In reality they just run good, develop bad habits and eventually go broke. The percentage of "Poker Pros" that really last is pretty low. Many of them have undergone a very strenous examination of their game and understand they play exceptionally.

It takes the right mindset to win at this game. Always play your best. Never let your mind get thrown off track because of the cards. Be honest with how you are playing.

And the money will find it's way to you.

Progress Post #9: Hold'Em, Omahahaha, and Alcohol, oh my!

Jeff wanted to get mentioned in my blog. There you go. You got mentioned.

Since my last post
Live Cash Games: +$55
Online cash games:+$105.93
Online Tournaments: -$11

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$429
Online cash games: -$22.27
Online Tournaments: +$2,418

So on Friday, we decided we would play a mixed game and alternate between No Limit Hold'Em and Pot Limit Omaha. For those that don't know, Omaha plays exactly like Hold'Em except you have four cards and must use two and only two of your hole cards.

Our lineup for our .25/.50 mixed game
Winston
Bryce
Forest
Jeff
Tim
Chang

Matt and Aki observed, under the premise "it's fun to watch Bryce lose money." Well that's probably true, lol.

Hey look Jeff, you got mentioned again! How lucky.

So the game started off fast... as usual.
We play some omaha and Chang bets three streets with an overpair and totally overplays his hand... if that's all he had. He showed QQ8x and couldve had a possible straight with 98. I folded two pair to him on the river, as did Forest. I get down to about $35 from my $50 buyin.

I get stacked almost immediately.
Chang limps, I raise with AJ, Chang calls.
The flop comes Jc7s4c something similar.
He checks, I bet like $5 he raises to like $15 and I push. He groans and says he's priced in to call. He calls with 78o... and spikes a 8 on the turn. Matt is here too just hanging out, and he is laughing his ass off now.
I just shake my head and reload $50 more.
Then I get the Ah9hTc4c all in against something like KcQh7h2d on a KhQc5h flop. I'm not 100% what my equity is, but I think it's pretty good here, like around 45% or more. I need to find an Omaha equity calculator. It goes brick brick, and I'm out another $50.

I reloaded for $100 more, and the night continues.

We drink some. I tried out some tequila that Chang says was better than Patron. Chang left in his new car, and came back with it after not too long. Tim tried it and said I wouldn't be able to down two shots at once. I asked him if he wanted to bet on it, and when he declined, I downed two shots. Hah, owned.
I must be a lightweight cause just two shots and a little ale, had me buzzed if not drunk. I was definitely playing worse. On the other hand, it also let me set a record, I bluffed Winston twice, in the period of like 5 hands. The third try though cost me my whole stack lol.
Winston looked me up on a J557K 3 flush board, with J7. Well, it's Winston. Standard.
As usual Winston was being a beast. He chased after the bonus with 27 and triple barreled Jeff in a big Omaha pot. Then found out that you can't collect with 27 in Omaha.
Then he min raises Jeff on a 4 flush board on the river and took down another good sized pot.
Jeff, here's your 3rd mention.

I reloaded for 200 more. And eventually get Winston GOOD. Although he got me good too. He had me drink another double shot, this time of Patron. I still haven't found a beer or alcohol mix I like, so I guess when I drink, I'll stick to shots. Anyways, Winston pushed into my top two pair with an OESD. And omg I actually held up. What a concept.

Winston quit after that, and Aki went to sleep. It's around 2 or 3. Matt made a Del Taco run and we got H-ed out of the cheese on our fries. The people who hang out with Rob and Winston knows what that means.

Anyways, Winston quit, Jeff left (you got mentioned again!) and then Chang, Forest, Tim and I played 4 handed for a while. Forest actually cashed out $120 and lost the rest. He was completely smashed for like 2 hours. Later he bought back in then got totally sucked out on by Tim. I ended up $55, since Chang's A7 beat my KK when we got all in on a 642 flop. Standard.

Call of the night: Jeff's call with AJxx on an JT885 on a 3 flush board. It was a super sick call of Chang's all in on the river. I was like wowwwwwwwww what a call. Too bad Chang showed him a straight.

Bluff of the night: Winston's 27 bluff in omaha. That was sick.

Suckout of the night: Tim's AA beats Forest's 98 on the 765 rainbow flop. That was ridiculous, especially since I folded a 6 and Chang folded a 5. The board goes runner 6 6. So sick.

Anyways all and all, it was a fun night.

I actually got a job tutoring, so my time play poker and blog will decrease.

Oh and Jeff. Stop whining. You play fine, everyone has bad days. You're definitely one of the better players I know.

Progress Report #8: A Really Rough Night, and the Biggest Pot We've Ever Had

Well... All that money I won last week, I just lost and then some. I was pretty unlucky. I ran way below expectation on some very big hands.

Poker results since last post
Live games: -$700
Online cash game play: -$10
Online Tournaments: -$38

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$484
Online cash games: -$128.2
Online Tournaments: +$2,429

I ran pretty bad. These are the spots where I got all in, and my equity in those spots.

I bought in for $100.
I got AKs all in preflop for $150. Somehow all 4 players managed to get it in.

Zach: AsKs
Winston: 77
Rob: 22
Me: AdKd
Result: Winston flops a set and wins.
Pot size: about $600
My expected return: $119.79
In theory, I should expect to get $119.79 out of that pot. While that's not too good, frankly Rob shouldn't have called the huge preflop All in with 22, and if he didn't Winston wouldn't have called with 77. It just worked out well for Winston.

Bought in for another $100.

Zach: KK
Me: QQ
Pot size: About $225
Result: All in preflop and Zach hold up.
My expected return: $42.18
That's pretty bad, but that's what happens when you get into an 80/20. I feel this was a cooler and I'm almost never laying down QQ preflop given the flow of the game.

Bought in for another $100
Rob: KK
Me: QQ
Pot size: About $225 again.
Result: All in preflop again and Rob holds up. Again.
Expected Return: $42.18. Same as above, logic same as above.

Bought in for another $200
Zach: QQ
Me: AsKs
Pot size: $200
Result: All in preflop, and I actually win this one.
Expected Return: $92.42, I won $200 so I won $108.58 than expecation.


Winston: AsTs
Me: AdKd
Pot size: about $450
Result: All in preflop, and Winston sucks out. Figures.
Expected Return: $318.60 I have about 70% equity preflop which is pretty good. Ironically if Rob decided to play his 8s7s, he would've made a straight flush.

Bought in for $200 more.
Zach: KK AGAIN
Me: QQ AGAIN.

Zach raises to 5, Rob calls, Winston calls, I just call to see if I can trap someone.
Flop: Q 7 5 r
Zach and I get all in on the flop
Pot Size: about $600
Result: He turns a King. I have 91.41% equity and lose again. Man I got varienced in the eye last night.
Expected Return: $548.46

Deviation from expectation of these hands: -$962.23.
Yea... I ran bad.


We had a 20 buyin pot last night. In a $0.50/$1.00 game that means the pot was about $2,000.

Winston is down about $500 right now, and decided to reload for $1k. Rob has over $1,600 and Winston's $1,000 pushed the game size to haveing like $3,500 in play between 4 people. It was beyond ridiculous.

4 handed.
Rob has ATo
Winston has Q2o.
Somehow they manged to get $2000 in the middle.
I'm not quite sure how it went down, but all I know is Winston has trip queens, and Rob had middle pair. Rob bet like $150 on the river and Winston pushed all in for like $700 more and Rob snap called. It was unreal.

eh. We're supposed to play a smaller game on Friday. We'll see how it goes.

See you later.

No Limit Strategy Post #1: Pot Odds

At it's core, poker is pot odds.

You have 7d 8d. The pot is $100 and your opponent just pushed all in for $10 more on Ac 6h 9s flop. You are heads up. Do you call?

Same scenario with one change.
This time he moves all in for $500 more instead of $10 more. Now do you call?

Most people will answer yes to the first and no to the second. Everyone who plays the game understands pot odds at least a little bit. But many beginning players don't know how to properly use pot odd calculations to decide what to do.

The fact is when the game is boiled to it's core the entire goal in Hold'Em is to make someone make a mistake based off odds. If they are 33% to win and are offered better than 2:1 odds, they should theoretically call you. Every time they fold you win money. If they commit their money as a 4:1 underdog with the pot only laying them 2:1 odds, you win money in the long run. Pot odds are critical to poker.

Many players have a rough understanding of pot odds. They understand when the pot is huge, it is more correct to chase because winning the large pot will make up for the times they lose. However, without a solid grounding in math they frequently make mistakes by chasing too often when they shouldn't and folding too often when the odds are good. The most frequent mistakes involve calling with wrong odds with flush and straight draws, and folding strong one pair hands to bets small in comparison to the pot.

I go to a casino and see it all the time. People chasing a flush draw for half their stack on the flop. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they don't. They call huge raises preflop with small pocket pairs. They bet strong with a pair only to shrivel up when the 3rd card to a flush comes. It happens online too.

The golden rule of pot odds -
If the odds of you winning is equal or more to the odds the pot is laying, the play is profitable.

For example if you are facing a pot sized river bet with top pair top kicker, you are facing 2:1 odds. If you think you will win 33% of the time you should be calling. If done three times, you will win the entire pot once, which will cover for both the times you lose.

Now the above rule ignores the possibility of raising, playing pots multiway and action on future streets. But it applies every time action closes for the remainder of the hand or action closes on this street and you are drawing to the nuts.

Bluffing and valuebetting is based off pot odds as well, but not only your odds, but also your opponents.

If you make a pot sized bluff, it needs to work 50% of the time to be immediately profitable. If it's a half pot bluff, it needs to work 33% of the time. A fourth pot bet needs to work 25% of the time and so on.

However, remember, the golden rule is if the odds of you winning are greater than the odds you are laying. That means 1/10 pot bets rarely work as profitable bets because you are called far greater than 9/10 times. As a matter of fact bets less than 20% of the pot have an extremely low ratio of success. The problem is a bet like offers your opponent such enticing pot odds that is almost always called. They are receiving odds of 10:1, so they will tend to look you up quite light.

When you are value betting, you are looking for them to call with wrong pot odds. Since they can't know your exact cards, you are trying to get them to commit money with the worst hand. Let's say the flop is Ac4h9h, and you have Ah Kh in your hand. Your make a 1/2 pot bet on the flop. You opponent calls you with 6h 7h, trying to catch a flush. He thinks he has the right odds to call. He is getting 3:1 immediate odds and thinks he can win more out of you if he hits. But in fact, he is drawing nearly dead. So you profit from his call. Because hands are kept secret, he can only put you only a range of hands. Likewise, you can only put him on a range of hands. Therefore, the optimal bet size is the one that offers the pot odds that wins you the most money against his entire range of hands.

Sometimes that means bluffing. Sometimes that means valuebetting. Assuming your bet sizing isn't terrible, you will offer him correct odds for some of his hands and incorrect odds for others. The goal is getting him to fold the hands he has correct odds to play, and getting him to continue with the hands he has wrong odds to play. This is why hand reading is so critical to this game.

Here is a quick formula to determine your odds of winning a hand. It's not perfect, but it's good enough on the fly.

(X)(Y)(2%) = % chance to win.
X is the number of cards that let you win.
Y is the number of remaining streets.

There are approximately 50 cards in the deck. So each card has about a 2% chance to hit. In reality it's higher than that, but that percent is offset by the fact not all your outs are clean,(Meaning you win when you hit them) or the chance they can redraw on you.

So estimating a flush draw, you have 9 outs, over the turn and river. You are about 36% to win, or 2% x 9 x 2. So if you have 2:1 pot odds you should be calling, assuming you are correct about your action chance to win. This can be huge, for example if your opponent pushed for 300 more into a 300 dollar pot, many people would muck their flush draw. But the fact is, assuming your outs are live you should be calling there.

Actually, you'll find when properly implementing pot odds, you will be losing a lot of pots, and sucking out more often. But you're priced in to do so. Just remember the rule. Don't make a call on the river with third pair "because I had 4:1 odds." You may not be winning there one in five times. Try to figure out why they would bet with something, and narrow their hand range.

Good luck all, I'll see you across the felt.

Progress Report #7: UPDATED, School Begins and Big Score

Updated as of Jan 24, 2008

Sorry. I promised I would get a strategy post up, but I haven't had the time to finish it yet. The post will be on pot odds and how it factors into your decision making when bluffing and playing drawing hands. It takes a bit more effort to make a strategy post, since I can't just fill it up with random nonsense.

School started last Monday. I was sick the first day of school, and still have a chronic cough. We played a home game the Sunday before school started, played again on Wednesday and again on this past Sunday. I played online a bit as well and still managed to get my homework done. Winston is going to make this a degenerate semester, lol. But seriously, I actually plan to focus at lot on my classes this time around. I want to bring my GPA up.

Results - Estimated since I'm not at home and don't have my database. Will fix it later.

EDIT: Updated.

Live cash games, net winnings: +$300
Online cash games, net winnings: -$121.28 Apparently, I did better than I thought.
Online Tournaments, net winnings: +$2,467

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: +$216
Online cash games: -$118.2
Online Tournaments: +$2,467
Tournament ROI: 6592% (Not Sustainable lol)

So I ran bad at our home game, and then ran worse online, but I ran quite good in the tournament, so it all balances out. I entered a $35+3 bounty tournament with a $8,000 guaranteed prize pool. The buyin is split up into $30 for the prize pool, $5 for the bounty pool, and $3 for the house rake. The tournament had about 320-350 players at the beginning. I held up a lot as a 55/45 and 60/40 which is always nice. I also won a critical hand on the final table, that basically put me as a huge favorite to win. The button had about 80k in chips, and I had about 100k. When the blinds are 2000/4000 he raises to about 18k on the button. I think and decide my AQc is way ahead of his raising range on the button, and there is a good amount in already, so I push over his raise. He snap calls my all in with KK. Opps, he had a real hand.
I actually win my 30/70, and eliminate him. After flopping an ace, I now I have a monster stack and proceed to dominate the rest of the final table by playing big stack strategy. I'll be honest, I'm almost never folding AQ suited to a button raise, and even if I had just called I would've flopped an ace and gotten a large number of his chips. After I busted him, we were down to five players, and I took them all out too. Winning was worth about $2,430 and I took out 13 players along the way so I netted another $65.
I plan to withdraw about $1,400 and leave another $1,300 online to grind 50nl with.

There was a fun hand I played heads up. I was playing extremely aggresively heads up, and I think I tilted him pretty hard. The way he played this was quite marginal in my opinion.

I have 78o from the button. Heads up is played with the small blind on the button, and the BB out of position. Since, I had been raising the button a lot (any two cards practically) I decided to just complete this time. Stacks are about 200k each, he has a minor lead. Blinds are 3000/6000 now.
He checks his option and we see a flop.
Flop is 258r.
He bets outs 14k. I call him.
Turn is a 8 and it brings out a flush draw. He bets 35k or so. I call him again, hoping I can get all his chips in the river.
The river is a 4, making a possible straight with 76. He bets out 85k, and I push all in, thinking, well if he really has trips beat heads up, I guess he wins.

He snap called.

And showed 62o.

I fell out of my chair laughing.

I put him all in for his last 20k with 65c and he called with T2d. I flopped a 6 and take him out. He called me a donk afterwards, I found that amusing.

I can't say I played perfectly, after all no one ever does. But I think I played quite well and ran good and that's what it takes to win a tournament.

Post on pot odds coming up next.


Jan 24, 2008.
We had a home hame on Wednesday. I finally got Winston GOOD. It started off normal, I got AQc all in preflop vs Rob's face up 69o and Winston's T8d. Winston wins it, I reload 200 more.

I get AA vs Winston's KK and double.

Then after messing around for a while, I get into another monster pot with Winston. Remember this is a $0.50/$1 game.

Alex raises to $5, Winston calls, I reraise with K9o. Not a normal play by any means, but I have position and decide to make a play at the pot. It folds back around to Winston who calls my $20 raise. The flop is K74r. He checks I bet $30, he calls me. The turn card is a 2 that makes the board completely rainbow. He checks, I check behind. The river is a Ten and he pushes all in. And I think and think and think. I have this sick nagging feeling, that Winston is on a HUGE bluff. He basically put me all in for another $250 when the pot is $100. I go with my gut and make the call, and he shows me 93o. That made my day.

Nate ended the game up about $1100, I left +$460.

I updated my net winnings above taking this into account and also looking up exactly where I am online.

Ja ne.