Progress Report #8: A Really Rough Night, and the Biggest Pot We've Ever Had

Well... All that money I won last week, I just lost and then some. I was pretty unlucky. I ran way below expectation on some very big hands.

Poker results since last post
Live games: -$700
Online cash game play: -$10
Online Tournaments: -$38

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$484
Online cash games: -$128.2
Online Tournaments: +$2,429

I ran pretty bad. These are the spots where I got all in, and my equity in those spots.

I bought in for $100.
I got AKs all in preflop for $150. Somehow all 4 players managed to get it in.

Zach: AsKs
Winston: 77
Rob: 22
Me: AdKd
Result: Winston flops a set and wins.
Pot size: about $600
My expected return: $119.79
In theory, I should expect to get $119.79 out of that pot. While that's not too good, frankly Rob shouldn't have called the huge preflop All in with 22, and if he didn't Winston wouldn't have called with 77. It just worked out well for Winston.

Bought in for another $100.

Zach: KK
Me: QQ
Pot size: About $225
Result: All in preflop and Zach hold up.
My expected return: $42.18
That's pretty bad, but that's what happens when you get into an 80/20. I feel this was a cooler and I'm almost never laying down QQ preflop given the flow of the game.

Bought in for another $100
Rob: KK
Me: QQ
Pot size: About $225 again.
Result: All in preflop again and Rob holds up. Again.
Expected Return: $42.18. Same as above, logic same as above.

Bought in for another $200
Zach: QQ
Me: AsKs
Pot size: $200
Result: All in preflop, and I actually win this one.
Expected Return: $92.42, I won $200 so I won $108.58 than expecation.


Winston: AsTs
Me: AdKd
Pot size: about $450
Result: All in preflop, and Winston sucks out. Figures.
Expected Return: $318.60 I have about 70% equity preflop which is pretty good. Ironically if Rob decided to play his 8s7s, he would've made a straight flush.

Bought in for $200 more.
Zach: KK AGAIN
Me: QQ AGAIN.

Zach raises to 5, Rob calls, Winston calls, I just call to see if I can trap someone.
Flop: Q 7 5 r
Zach and I get all in on the flop
Pot Size: about $600
Result: He turns a King. I have 91.41% equity and lose again. Man I got varienced in the eye last night.
Expected Return: $548.46

Deviation from expectation of these hands: -$962.23.
Yea... I ran bad.


We had a 20 buyin pot last night. In a $0.50/$1.00 game that means the pot was about $2,000.

Winston is down about $500 right now, and decided to reload for $1k. Rob has over $1,600 and Winston's $1,000 pushed the game size to haveing like $3,500 in play between 4 people. It was beyond ridiculous.

4 handed.
Rob has ATo
Winston has Q2o.
Somehow they manged to get $2000 in the middle.
I'm not quite sure how it went down, but all I know is Winston has trip queens, and Rob had middle pair. Rob bet like $150 on the river and Winston pushed all in for like $700 more and Rob snap called. It was unreal.

eh. We're supposed to play a smaller game on Friday. We'll see how it goes.

See you later.