Bluffing is a critical skill in poker. And misunderstood by most players.
When people think of No Limit Hold'em, they often think of the WPT or WSOP where they see professional making daring bluffs with 6 high for their entire stacks, or make a loose call on the river to snap a bluff off. Then the people watching go out and play and lose their entire stack.
They often wonder why. They think "Well, it worked for them. Why not me?"
The answer to that question is so incredibly complex. The things that affect the success of a bluff could fill a book.
I think bluffing is the most complicated part of poker in No Limit Hold'em. And one of the most critical skills.
It's easy to beat someone who never bluffs. Whenever they check, they will fold every time they have nothing. Anytime they bet you just fold. If you have an extremely strong hand, you know they have some sort of hand, so it's easy to extract value. A person who never bluffs is extremely exploitable. And the basis of the game is exploiting suboptimal play in order to win money.
Bluffing is a very simple concept. You try to represent a strong hand in order to get your opponent to fold a hand better than your own. Still it's a bit more complicated then that.
The goal of a bluff isn't necessarily to win the pot. It's to turn a profit, and you will only need to win the pot a certain percentage of the time to make that work.
If the goal was just to win the pot, the most effective way to do that would be to push all in (most of the time). However, doing that will actually cost you money in the long run.
Bluffing makes money by forcing them to fold a hand that has equity. When you do this you make a profit, because all of the equity they would normally have goes to you. Sometimes you actually want a worse hand then yours to fold, because they actually have the correct odds to call you and attempt to draw out. For example say you have AA and they have a gutshot straight flush draw. They have 1.5:1 odds to see the next two cards. Despite being a favorite you actually prefer them to fold, so you receive the entire pot, as opposed to only part of it. (The part that your equity would entitle you to, if you ran it an infinite number of times)
The profitability of a bluff is rather straight forward. I am going to ignore future table image (known as metagame) in your expected value calculation.
Bluff size = $B
Current Potsize = $CP
net profit when called after bluff = $AP
Profit = ($CP) x (% chance your opponent folds) + ($AP) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your opponent's equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% chance your opponent raises)
In layman's terms. The profitability of a bluff is determined by how often your opponent folds, how often they call and you win anyways, and how often they raise. (assuming you fold when they raise)
Of course a river bluff is simpler. Either it works or it doesn't.
Profit = $CP * (% of time opponent folds) - $B*(% time opponent calls)
Because of this lack of equity on future streets, river bluffs need to be more succesful than ones made on the flop or turn. However since the pot is larger it does tend to work well, especially if you have been betting earlier.
Example time. Let's say you have a flush draw with exactly 20% chance to win on the river.
You make a pot sized bet of $10 into a $10 pot. There will be no action on the river.
You win $10 immediately when it succeeds. You think this will happen about 50% of the time.
You will win $30 when the flush comes in which will be 20% of the time. But you are only called 25% of the time.You will be raised 25% of the time and will fold when raised.
So.
When your bluff succeeds, you win $10 immediately. This happens 50% of the time.
When your bluff is raised, you lose $10 immediately. This happens 25% of the time.
When your bluff is called, which it will be 25% of the time, you will win net $20 20% of the time, and lost $10 the other 80%.
$10*0.5-$10*0.25+$20*0.25*0.2-$10*0.25*0.8 = $1.5
Your bluff will show a $1.50 profit each time you make it.
Now, these numbers were just picked out of thin air. The real skill in bluff is determining what the numbers really are. The best you can really do is estimate, but the better you estimate the more you will win.
There is of course another entire realm to bluffing, your opponent. But this part is important. Because if you think your opponent will fold his hand to a bluff, that doesn't mean a huge overbet bluff is profitable. The size of our bluff is just as critical as when you decide to bluff. The two parts together are what bluffing is really about. And the one I just showed you is the easy part to learn.
See you across the felt.
Bryce
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