No Limit Strategy Post #1: Pot Odds

At it's core, poker is pot odds.

You have 7d 8d. The pot is $100 and your opponent just pushed all in for $10 more on Ac 6h 9s flop. You are heads up. Do you call?

Same scenario with one change.
This time he moves all in for $500 more instead of $10 more. Now do you call?

Most people will answer yes to the first and no to the second. Everyone who plays the game understands pot odds at least a little bit. But many beginning players don't know how to properly use pot odd calculations to decide what to do.

The fact is when the game is boiled to it's core the entire goal in Hold'Em is to make someone make a mistake based off odds. If they are 33% to win and are offered better than 2:1 odds, they should theoretically call you. Every time they fold you win money. If they commit their money as a 4:1 underdog with the pot only laying them 2:1 odds, you win money in the long run. Pot odds are critical to poker.

Many players have a rough understanding of pot odds. They understand when the pot is huge, it is more correct to chase because winning the large pot will make up for the times they lose. However, without a solid grounding in math they frequently make mistakes by chasing too often when they shouldn't and folding too often when the odds are good. The most frequent mistakes involve calling with wrong odds with flush and straight draws, and folding strong one pair hands to bets small in comparison to the pot.

I go to a casino and see it all the time. People chasing a flush draw for half their stack on the flop. Sometimes they hit, sometimes they don't. They call huge raises preflop with small pocket pairs. They bet strong with a pair only to shrivel up when the 3rd card to a flush comes. It happens online too.

The golden rule of pot odds -
If the odds of you winning is equal or more to the odds the pot is laying, the play is profitable.

For example if you are facing a pot sized river bet with top pair top kicker, you are facing 2:1 odds. If you think you will win 33% of the time you should be calling. If done three times, you will win the entire pot once, which will cover for both the times you lose.

Now the above rule ignores the possibility of raising, playing pots multiway and action on future streets. But it applies every time action closes for the remainder of the hand or action closes on this street and you are drawing to the nuts.

Bluffing and valuebetting is based off pot odds as well, but not only your odds, but also your opponents.

If you make a pot sized bluff, it needs to work 50% of the time to be immediately profitable. If it's a half pot bluff, it needs to work 33% of the time. A fourth pot bet needs to work 25% of the time and so on.

However, remember, the golden rule is if the odds of you winning are greater than the odds you are laying. That means 1/10 pot bets rarely work as profitable bets because you are called far greater than 9/10 times. As a matter of fact bets less than 20% of the pot have an extremely low ratio of success. The problem is a bet like offers your opponent such enticing pot odds that is almost always called. They are receiving odds of 10:1, so they will tend to look you up quite light.

When you are value betting, you are looking for them to call with wrong pot odds. Since they can't know your exact cards, you are trying to get them to commit money with the worst hand. Let's say the flop is Ac4h9h, and you have Ah Kh in your hand. Your make a 1/2 pot bet on the flop. You opponent calls you with 6h 7h, trying to catch a flush. He thinks he has the right odds to call. He is getting 3:1 immediate odds and thinks he can win more out of you if he hits. But in fact, he is drawing nearly dead. So you profit from his call. Because hands are kept secret, he can only put you only a range of hands. Likewise, you can only put him on a range of hands. Therefore, the optimal bet size is the one that offers the pot odds that wins you the most money against his entire range of hands.

Sometimes that means bluffing. Sometimes that means valuebetting. Assuming your bet sizing isn't terrible, you will offer him correct odds for some of his hands and incorrect odds for others. The goal is getting him to fold the hands he has correct odds to play, and getting him to continue with the hands he has wrong odds to play. This is why hand reading is so critical to this game.

Here is a quick formula to determine your odds of winning a hand. It's not perfect, but it's good enough on the fly.

(X)(Y)(2%) = % chance to win.
X is the number of cards that let you win.
Y is the number of remaining streets.

There are approximately 50 cards in the deck. So each card has about a 2% chance to hit. In reality it's higher than that, but that percent is offset by the fact not all your outs are clean,(Meaning you win when you hit them) or the chance they can redraw on you.

So estimating a flush draw, you have 9 outs, over the turn and river. You are about 36% to win, or 2% x 9 x 2. So if you have 2:1 pot odds you should be calling, assuming you are correct about your action chance to win. This can be huge, for example if your opponent pushed for 300 more into a 300 dollar pot, many people would muck their flush draw. But the fact is, assuming your outs are live you should be calling there.

Actually, you'll find when properly implementing pot odds, you will be losing a lot of pots, and sucking out more often. But you're priced in to do so. Just remember the rule. Don't make a call on the river with third pair "because I had 4:1 odds." You may not be winning there one in five times. Try to figure out why they would bet with something, and narrow their hand range.

Good luck all, I'll see you across the felt.