Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Progress Post #12: I'm selling lightning in a bottle, Chip Richie cleans up Anaheim

Since my last post

Tournaments: -$538
Online Cash Games: +$232.35
Live Cash Games: +$1,200

Net since last post: $894.35

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: +$2,344
Online cash games: +$800.25.
Online Tournaments: +$3303.02

Net since the beginning of the year: $6447.27

I was talking to Todd, and he and Brandon were at Hawaiian Gardens. They were invited to a home game, and managed to get Rob and me an invite. We drove to a company building and someone runs out to let us in. The business is run by Eddie. He's been hosting home games for years now, but they told me it's gonna be ending soon since he sold his business. Too bad it's a nice set up. Anyways, Eddie is a cool guy and apparently he gets about 30 people showing up on a weekly basis.

There was a $100 tournament. Rob and I got there too late to play, but whatever we prefer cash games anyways.

The cash game starts up when enough people busted. They had an all time dealer set up who began shuffling the cards. We sit down at that table. Their whole set up was quite nice. 4 tables spaced comfortably, with nice chips and cards. Drinks in a fridge in the corner and various snacks on the counter.

The cash game was $1/$2 with up to two live straddles. We start 6 handed with Rob on my right. I know Rob plays tight, so I know when he gets into a pot, I should stay out. I ended up playing my usual LAG game to take advantage of the weaker players. Since the cash game is starting with the people who busted in the tourney, I figured many of the people we were starting with were bad.

My first hand is KdQd, and I push it up to $7. The BTN and SB calls me with about $100 behind. Flop is Kxx. The SB bets into me and I call. The BTN folds. The turn is a Q, he checks and I bet. He calls. The river is a blank and I fire a $60 bet out there into about a $100 pot. He folds after showing a K. I show him KQ and gain some respect. I had planned to abuse it later, but not all goes according to plan.

I ended up running too hot to bother bluffing. I had a real hand so many times, I never actually got a good spot to bluff. I made 4 straights, a flush over a straight, and two sets against top pair and got paid on all of them.

Like I attempted to check/raise my OESD. But since I only put in one chip, they said its a call. I'm like fine whatever. And I turned the straight and got paid off, since he didn't put me on that.

Todd decided he would try to play poker against me and got burned. I took about $100 off him when he didn't give my river bet any credit and called with a bad top pair. Then I stacked him when I flopped top two with QJ when he limped AQ.
=/
I told him I wasn't playing back at him. Whatever. His loss.

Some guy kept calling me Chip Richie because I kept collecting all the chips. I said I preferred to be called Chip Reese, but he was like, he's six feet under.
I thought to myself, well I didn't say I want to be Chip Reese.

The same guy kept saying he wanted to stack me whenever I left the room. (Rob told me this) And Rob now wants to stack him. What a great friend. So Rob decided to have some fun and raise with Td9d. Not really a big deal, I do it all the time. The guy reraises from $7 to $45. All right it's time to fold'em, but Rob calls and the guy only has like $60 more behind. The flop comes out 9 high, the guy pushes. Rob calls and the other guy shows JJ. Rob catches a T and WOW I was laughing my ass off.

I ended the night up $1,500. I only played for about 3 or 4 hours and I won more than the guy who got first in the tournament. I also cashed out more than everyone else on the table combined. It was pretty nice. Rob won like $300 as well.

Overall, the players were very nice. They weren't very good, some were terrible and only a small handful were decent. Eddie says since he's selling his business, he wants to get in our games. We'll see. I don't think we'll mind, it's just we don't have enough space. Although I don't really know how happy they will be to play with us, seeing how bad Rob and I cleaned them out.

I ended up dropping $300 at Winston's home game the next day. I ran KK into AA on Winston's straddle (obviously) and then flopped a straight vs top two and he filled up.

Tuesday, March 4, 2008

Progress Post #11: Return from the dead, a month all at once

The update first for the people who only care about that.

Tournaments: -$821.38

I've played probably close to 50 tournaments since my last post. I made a few three figure cashes, but haven't hit any four figure ones. I've bought into almost $1,400 worth of tourneys since my last post.

Live Cash Games: +$1,600

I won about $2,100 at Morongo, and then lost some here and there. Most of this post is about the Morongo trip.

Online Cash Games: +$208.03

Net since last post: +$1808.03
Although I'd say about $200 of expenses were incurred during the trip.

Winnings this year to date.

Live Cash Games: +$1044
Online cash games: +$567.90.
Online Tournaments: +$3841.02

Net since the beginning of the year: $5,452.92
All and all not bad. I was planning to hit $25k by the end of the year. I'm about 3 months in, so I'm behind a bit. It's ok, I expect it to pick up during the summer. I should have more free time to play then.



Let's start with the trip to Morongo


By the way, I started this during the weekend, then let it sit for two weeks. So if the past and present tense seem a little mixed up that's why.

--------


This weekend was incredible. SK has defined a new level of degeneracy. We all went to Morongo. SK is down over $1,000 on the weekend.


In blackjack.


I told him he's an idiot.


Day 1


Run Like The Sun


SK and I wait around for Winston to ride with us. We hit up King's Kabob and then bail cause Winston is still asleep. Anyways, it takes us over 2 hours to get out there. I get on the wait list for 2/5. SK goes to play blackjack.


6 hours later, I'm up nearly $2,500 killing the 2/5 and SK is into me for $900. I make some nice plays like checking AQ with top pair on the flop and extracting a few hundred out of TT on turn and river. It helps I am connecting with just about everything. I leave early and get us a room a Super 8 Motel. SK mentioned he thought he might get shot on the way in. I doubt it. Everyone who got a room still owes me $30 btw. SK that includes you. Yes, yes it does. (He's watching me write this.) Update, I am now continuing this at home. He got me the $30. As did everyone else, except Zack, who I'm letting slide on it.

Generally playing at casinos, your strategy isn't to get all in. This is because the range of hands they get all in for 100bb+ with is usually pretty strong. However, it's very easy to extract 15-20bb bets out of them with weak hands. So you should generally try to go after more of their range, then play for big all in pots.

Anyways, SK managed to make a recovery on my loan and ships me back $800. As we leave I notice this Armenian guy who is smiling after just winning a big pot. He has like 4 racks in front of him. I wished I got to play with him cause he seemed really bad. (foreshadowing!!!)

I get to the Super 8, get us a room and crash. I'm tired.


Day 2


A Downswing of the Epic Variety


It's probably more exciting if I start with the end result. At the end of Day 2. Sk is no longer in debt.


I am now into SK for $200.


The morning started with a continental breakfast, then going to Morongo. I play the 1/3 with Zack (who got zero sleep) and dump $200. I can't beat that game. It's impossible.

I play some blackjack and win $150 back. LOL. Blackjack.

Zack ended up losing like $200 at the 1/3 also and wants to go play blackjack as well. I am kinda against it, since I just won $150 there. But I go with anyways. I end up dumping back $250 to the casino. Figures. So I'm -$300 at this point.

I finally got a seat at the 2/5.

The same Armenian guy is sitting at the 2/5 game the next morning. I thought to myself, well I guess I get to play with him. There were a few other people from the previous night still there. Since I got some sleep, I was fresh and feeling good about my chances. I sit down with $1,000.

The Armenian guy takes me out for $1,800, and Zack for like $600 over the course of the day. I felt the full force of varience at it's worse. I got backdoor straighted 4 or 5 times. He caught a gutshot against my top two pair. He rivered trips against my two pair. He caught flush after flush. Then finally when he stops catching with rags he picks up pocket kings. He has the entire table disgusted at how lucky he is getting. He quickly builds a monsterous stack that is pushing $5,000 at the table's expense. Yea, he's getting lucky against the entire table. Like when his 95 called a $50 reraise against pocket Kings and flopped a boat.

Later, that day we had something interesting happen. SK just announced his last hand. The black guy UTG raises to $10, I call with 66, SK makes it $35 to go. The armenian guy calls in the SB, the BB calls (he is a chill guy and we play with him on Day 3.), and the black guy calls. I look down at the menial $150 in my stack and say what the hell and push all in. SK is looks at me in disbelief. I'm like "How hard can it be, if you got a big hand, you should raise." I didn't realize the impact my words would have. The BB immediately calls us on "teamplay" or collusion. The aremenian guy doesn't look happy about a reraise either and quickly agrees with the BB. UTG said we should call the floor. As usual when there is an arguement one side is heatedly argueing with the floorman. SK and I on the other hand we're kinda like. That's collusion? I suppose it's kinda borderline, but I'm so used to playing our home games, that I guess I picked up some bad habits. Anyways, the floor eventually rules, it's not collusion, but it's still questionable. She says SK can't reraise, but can call and gives us both a warning. SK ends up really questioning what to do and folds after a few minutes.

He has KK.

His logic is that he doesn't want to risk the $1,000 of profit he just won. He was just about to leave anyways. Instead of getting into a 5 way protected pot, he decides that it's better to just fold to avoid making an expensive mistake. It's a pretty weak play, but he was playing scared money, so I can see it.

The aremenian guy folds, the BB calls me and UTG folds.
BB has QJh.
Terrible call IMO. It's nice for me though. I love coinflipping with 2:1 on my money.

The flop comes out 784r which looks stellar for my 66. The turn is a 7, and the river is an 8. And I'm like, hmm I have 6 high now.
His queen high scoops the pot.

I just laugh. Perfect ending to my day.


After that I visited the Casino near Crush's pad. I lost another $300 there playing Omaha. It was just a bad day. I played some poker online and won $100. Not much of a recovery.


Day 3


The Pheonix that Rises From The Ashes


Since I lent out some money, I hit the ATM and bought in for $500 at the $2/$5 game. As of right now I exactly net $0 in poker (and blackjack) on the weekend. Zack and Crush are still sleeping, so SK and I head out to Morongo on our own. It's like 10AM. The casino is pretty empty. There are 4 people on the 2/5 wait list. We get on the list, then we sit at an open 1/3 table. I lost another $20 at 1/3 (I CAN'T BEAT IT, IT'S IMPOSSIBLEEEEEEEE). Sk wins like $20.

The 2/5 starts up. We begin playing 5 handed. I play aggresively and quickly win a few hundred dollars by stealing a few pots and catching good cards. SK bought in for $200 and is up to about $250-300. The two players between us were donating to the rest.

The old guy on my left, is a regular. He plays pretty solid all round good tight aggresive poker. He takes out another guy who apparently is a reg for a $1k pot. Two pair over two pair, the guy on my left fills up. So now he has a boat over the other guy's two pair. The other guy pays off way too much, because he figured "he never has an 8 there."

Seats are numbered from right to left in a circle. The table is structured like this.
Seat 1: Me
Seat 2: Old guy with Cowboy hat.
Seat 3: SK
Seat 4: Empty
Seat 5: Empty
Seat 6: Empty
Seat 7: Empty
Seat 8: Old guy who stacks off to seat 2
Seat 9: Older guy who is the worst of the five us.

Slowly the table fills ups. I slowly start to build a stack. I am playing extremely well in my opinion. I am focusing really well, and managed to earn the tables respect. I call down with middle pair against this other young guy (sits down in Seat 7) and showdown the best hand, I extract value with top pair no kicker, and keep showing down the best hand. Whether or not, I had a good starting hand was mostly irrelevant because I tend to go to showdown with winners. They start getting scared of me, which in turn let me loosen up and steal a ton of pots.

The older guy on my left gets up, and leaves. He's up about $800 which is pretty solid. One of the guys we were playing with last night sits in his seat and we start chatting.

I was playing tight (for me), which means playing about 25% of my hands. I felt I was extracting near max value out of them though.

SK and I had an unspoken agreement not to play big pots together and he folded ATo to my raise when I had KQs. The flop came out KQJ LOL, I would stacked off for sure. SK manages to get it up to $400 for a $200 profit and gets off. The asian guy who takes his seat, gets AQo on the first hand and flops the broadway straight and doubles up LOL. SK is like ... damn it.

Next hand the asian guy gets T9o calls a reraise and flops the nut straight again and doubles through KK. Sk is like... wow I would've had like 1.5k now.

The asian guy is actually really bad. He plays extremely aggresively, but doesn't hand read, so he ends up lighting money on fire. He ends up dumping $900 or so by the end of the day.

One of my favorites was when I raise with 99 on hte button. I make it $30 to go. He calls in the BB and the limper folds. The flop came out K32r. He bets $25 into me. I don't really think his range is beats mine, so I call. On the turn, another 2 falls and he fires $75 more. I still don't believe him and call. The river is a 3. I beat nothing except like 44-88 and pure bluffs. He fires $200. I think and call. He MUCKS HIS HAND and says nice call. I put a huge smile on my face and pass my hand towards the muck. The guy to my left who I was playing with last night, calls out to see both hands. (He's a nice guy, we chatted a lot and he was fun to play with. Sorry I forgot his name. Brandon maybe? SK lemme know if you remember.) I say OK, and proudly flip over 99. He shows 84o. Almost everyone at the table was like wow. I can't beleive you called that. I talked to SK about it, he said he felt he was bluffing too, but didn't know if he could pull the trigger with 99.

I texted out this picture midday. It was a brag. I was up about $2,000 and feeling real good.
Red Chips are $5 each. Those racks each have 100 chips in them.
The stacks in front of the racks are stacks of 10. The green chip is $25. The shortest stack are all blacks. Most people recognize black chips as $100. The far right is everything else. Browns are $2. I have about $25 in that stack.

And yes the money is all benjamins. Cash plays at the $2/$5.
Thats about $2,500 there. Maybe a hundred or two less.

The day is approaching a close, and the casino is just starting to pick up.
SK sat back down. Played really tight. Got AA and some idiot paid him off.


He played like 5 hands the whole day and won like $400. Standard.

This crazy asian kid sat down in seat 6. He ends up winning huge pots getting money in bad wiht draws over and over. He pushed all in with flush and straight draws (acceptable), and called all in with flush and straight draws (unacceptable, most of the time anyways).

When he almost took me out for $800 with a draw, I figured it might be time to leave. (He didn't because I decided not to call him with a pair of fours... but I did have the best hand.)

I shook hands with some of the guys I talked with, wished everyone luck and hit the chip changer. I have to say I was proud. I couldn't close my wallet. It was too full.

We went back to Crush's place. I donated $100, so Zack and Crush could buy alcohol. I had two screwdrivers and mimosa. Then we watched Wedding Crashers and Just Friends, because apparently that's what was available.

I go to sleep later.

SK and I wake up and decide to hit the Cabazon outlet, because the money is burning a hole in my pocket. We go around and SK ends up spending more than I do. LOL. Not hard. I didn't buy anything.


All and all, it was a BLAST. I think Winston came up a few hundred, Nate dropped like 1, and Zack came out brutalized. -$1,000 I think? Rough man. SK actually managed to come out with like $600 profit which is pretty impressive considering how much he lost in blackjack.

I'll try to get my next post out sooner.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce

Leviathan101
Modoaddict

Friday, February 22, 2008

No Limit Strategy #2: Sizing Bluffs Effectively

Bluffing is a critical skill in poker. And misunderstood by most players.

When people think of No Limit Hold'em, they often think of the WPT or WSOP where they see professional making daring bluffs with 6 high for their entire stacks, or make a loose call on the river to snap a bluff off. Then the people watching go out and play and lose their entire stack.

They often wonder why. They think "Well, it worked for them. Why not me?"

The answer to that question is so incredibly complex. The things that affect the success of a bluff could fill a book.

I think bluffing is the most complicated part of poker in No Limit Hold'em. And one of the most critical skills.

It's easy to beat someone who never bluffs. Whenever they check, they will fold every time they have nothing. Anytime they bet you just fold. If you have an extremely strong hand, you know they have some sort of hand, so it's easy to extract value. A person who never bluffs is extremely exploitable. And the basis of the game is exploiting suboptimal play in order to win money.

Bluffing is a very simple concept. You try to represent a strong hand in order to get your opponent to fold a hand better than your own. Still it's a bit more complicated then that.

The goal of a bluff isn't necessarily to win the pot. It's to turn a profit, and you will only need to win the pot a certain percentage of the time to make that work.

If the goal was just to win the pot, the most effective way to do that would be to push all in (most of the time). However, doing that will actually cost you money in the long run.

Bluffing makes money by forcing them to fold a hand that has equity. When you do this you make a profit, because all of the equity they would normally have goes to you. Sometimes you actually want a worse hand then yours to fold, because they actually have the correct odds to call you and attempt to draw out. For example say you have AA and they have a gutshot straight flush draw. They have 1.5:1 odds to see the next two cards. Despite being a favorite you actually prefer them to fold, so you receive the entire pot, as opposed to only part of it. (The part that your equity would entitle you to, if you ran it an infinite number of times)

The profitability of a bluff is rather straight forward. I am going to ignore future table image (known as metagame) in your expected value calculation.

Bluff size = $B
Current Potsize = $CP
net profit when called after bluff = $AP

Profit = ($CP) x (% chance your opponent folds) + ($AP) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your opponent's equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% chance your opponent raises)

In layman's terms. The profitability of a bluff is determined by how often your opponent folds, how often they call and you win anyways, and how often they raise. (assuming you fold when they raise)

Of course a river bluff is simpler. Either it works or it doesn't.

Profit = $CP * (% of time opponent folds) - $B*(% time opponent calls)

Because of this lack of equity on future streets, river bluffs need to be more succesful than ones made on the flop or turn. However since the pot is larger it does tend to work well, especially if you have been betting earlier.

Example time. Let's say you have a flush draw with exactly 20% chance to win on the river.

You make a pot sized bet of $10 into a $10 pot. There will be no action on the river.
You win $10 immediately when it succeeds. You think this will happen about 50% of the time.
You will win $30 when the flush comes in which will be 20% of the time. But you are only called 25% of the time.You will be raised 25% of the time and will fold when raised.

So.
When your bluff succeeds, you win $10 immediately. This happens 50% of the time.
When your bluff is raised, you lose $10 immediately. This happens 25% of the time.
When your bluff is called, which it will be 25% of the time, you will win net $20 20% of the time, and lost $10 the other 80%.

$10*0.5-$10*0.25+$20*0.25*0.2-$10*0.25*0.8 = $1.5

Your bluff will show a $1.50 profit each time you make it.

Now, these numbers were just picked out of thin air. The real skill in bluff is determining what the numbers really are. The best you can really do is estimate, but the better you estimate the more you will win.

There is of course another entire realm to bluffing, your opponent. But this part is important. Because if you think your opponent will fold his hand to a bluff, that doesn't mean a huge overbet bluff is profitable. The size of our bluff is just as critical as when you decide to bluff. The two parts together are what bluffing is really about. And the one I just showed you is the easy part to learn.

See you across the felt.
Bryce

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Progress Post #10: The most degenerate home game ever! Courtesy of Winston

I wrote this as I was playing, and then put it online at a later date. If my thoughts seem a bit jumbled that's why.
February 21st - Update. I played a home game last night. I won $237. Nothing extremely notable, I caught a 2 outter on Winston for a good sized pot (JUSTICE!), and Nate and Rob were stacking chips. I got pretty lucky I also outflopped AA with 88 in a huge preflop pot.

---

I'm at the home game right now. Mike, Marshall and other people are making fun of me for writing this. lol, they'll probably end up reading this anyways. Nate is whining he still hasn't gotten mentioned. Congratulations Nate, read the line previous to this one.

I'm not playing right now. I took a break and got some food. Chipotle obv.

It's been a pretty swingy month so far. I was down about $1,000 then I took down another tournament. This time on FTP. $24+2 6m KO NLHE tourney. $2,795 for first. I got 10 KOs along the way for another $40. Jeff was complaining that me winning that took my bankroll above his. lol, out of everyone sweating me on the final table he was the only person who was rooting for me to lose.

Since my last post, Updated as of February 21st.
Live Cash Games: -$127
Online cash games: +$382.14
Online Tournaments: +$2244.4

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$556 (I swear one of these days, I'll actually win a monster pot when I'm a monster favorite. Wait till you see this one.)
Online cash games: +$359.87.
Online Tournaments: +$4662.4

I ran pretty good in the tournament. I plan to withdraw about $2,000.

LOL Nate just overbet pushed the flop with AA and got called by top pair and held up. Nice play Nate, nice play. Excellent value push, being drunk is definitely +EV.

Our group for tonight includes:
SK Winston
Mitch Stephan
Nate (the drunk guy) Zach
Another Nate Alex
Marshall Jeff
Mike Me

Aki is watching as always, and Rob decided to just deal tonight.

As usual the game has turned into a degenerate drunken fest of gambling. Who am I kidding?
It starts that way. Nate and I played Ro-Sham-Bo for $5 while we were waiting for the game to start. I trashed him 3-1 best out of 5.

I'm playing again now. Mitch had to go back and work in SK's spot. What a degen. Lol.

I get TT vs 99 vs AA on a T9x flop. I triple through Winston and Marshall and propel my stack up to over $200. I'm only in for $40.

Oh man, I got him.
I just won a 9.5 buyin pot of Winston. With K3o. Preflop.

I straddled, there is some action and then Winston makes a monster push for like $200+.
It's folded around to me and I have a sick feeling I'm good here. I think about his hand range. He doesn't tend to push in unraised pots at all, but I doubt he do it with AA. The 72o rule is in effect, so I have to consider that. He also loves 93o (cause he bluffed with it against me before). 63o (cause he keeps hitting straights with that hand), and T8o (the Chuck Norris). I figure there might be some other random chaff, but I think since I dominate 2 of the 4 hands I think are most likely, I decide to call. He also told me he'd give me $25 to call him, which makes me think he was trying to convince me to fold. I probably shouldn't have wrote that. Now, it's gonna be a stupid mind game next time he does it.

I hold up, he has 72o, and I scoop a huge pot.

Some action goes down, SK makes some sick plays that will be described in detail later.

I just folded AQs with the nut flush. Wow. I am really playing on it tonight. I think my hand reading skills are like really good at the moment.

Winston straddled, Nate minraises, I decide to flat call on the button. Winston calls. The flop is Th7s6s. Winston bets out for $5, Nate calls, I call. Turn is the 5s, and I'm like nice, I got there. Winston bets $15, Nate raises to $50, and I get a sick feeling that I'm no good here. I can't just fold my hand and just calling seems terrible there, so I raise to $100 which puts Nate all in. Winston thinks and calls.
I immediately put him on a straight flush.
I can't explain it. I mean 9s8s makes perfect sense given the way he played it, it's just so sick. How can I put him on one hand?

Nate calls all in.

The river is a 6h pairing the board. Winston pushes for $300+ and I fold my cards face up. I call out Winston with a straight flush. Winston flips over 9s8s, Nate has JsTs.

Megacooler much?

Ugh, Winston got me again. Reraised pot I have AJs, he has AQs. Flop is AJ5. Turn is Q.

Winston: Standard.

He's watching me type this now.

and... this is the big hand of the night. I open to $3 with KK. Winston reraised to $8, and I decided to just call to try to trap him. The flop comes out Kh Jh 5d.
I check.
Winston bets $15.
I raise to $45
Winston reraises to $75.
I reraise to $275.
He thinks for a while and finally calls.

I consider pushing all in in the dark. I probably should've.
The turn is an Ace. I push for another $325. Winston thinks and thinks and thinks. He says he has AK. I don't say anything. He eventually calls.
Me: I got you beat for now.
Winston looks at the river card.
Winston: Ship it.
Me: Fuck.

He scoops a $1,200 pot in a $0.25/$0.50. So sick.

Rob wants me to say he practically pissed his pants when he heard me go off.

Winston feels sorry, so he gives me $200. But he says he's gonna take it all back. And he does, 3 hands later.

SK gets an entire paragraph dedicated to him.
First he folds 98 on a JsTs7h. The sick part is Winston would've caught on him if he played it out.

Then I read him perfectly, and he shows me QQ on a KQQ flop. I folded KJ lol.

Then he makes a terrible laydown and check/folds AK to me on an Ace high flop. I would've runner runnered him. Somehow he manged to come out up some money anyways.

Awards for the night:
Sickest fold: SK folding 98o with the nutz. LOL
Runner up goes to me for folding the nut flush.

Biggest bad beat: Winston Clearly.

I gotta say despite what happened, I felt I played extremely well. Near perfect. I got away from lots of second best hands and snapped bluffs. IMO, I feel I should've left with like 1200+, but the forces of the universe conspired against me. Well there is always tonight. I got midterms coming up, so I won't have an update for a while.

Monday, February 11, 2008

Soft Skills #1: Understanding The True Nature Of Poker

In poker, there are two kinds of players. Those at war with luck and those that embrace it.

THSpanda8: have u ever read a book called fooled by randomness by taleb
modoaddict: nope
modoaddict: is it good?
THSpanda8: its a good book about the stock market but the concepts apply really well to poker also. its a pretty famous finance book
modoaddict: hm
modoaddict: interesting
THSpanda8: haha this is a one sentence summary of the book but tell me if it doesnt sound more like poker to u
THSpanda8: "the book looks at egotistical wall street types who experience temporary success and huge bonuses, but dont understand that they are only temporarily lucky. Shortly thereafter they are out of work and cannot understand why."
modoaddict: LOL
THSpanda8: translate to:
THSpanda8: "the book looks at egotistical poker players who experience temporary success and huge wins, but dont understand that they are only temporarily lucky. Shortly thereafter they are broke and cannot understand why."

Modoaddict is my screen name.
THSpanda8 is Jeff. He got mentioned a few posts back.


Texas Hold'Em is a game of luck. In any given hand, I can be dealt AA, and so can you. Who gets it is entirely luck. When you have AdKd, whether or not you will improve to beat QQ is entirely luck. Everyone knows this. Poker is inherently a game about luck and catching cards.

Except it's a bit more than that. Because the game is more than just having cards. It's about what you do with them.

Texas Hold'Em is a game of skill. The best players consistantly win tournaments and make a living off a game where each person could be dealt the winning hand at any given time. It's entirely luck when it comes down to who is dealt AA. But it's entirely skill that determines how much you win or lose with it. And furthermore, sometimes the most skilled player will lose more than the worst player in a given hand. Sometimes the worse player will win more, but the goal is to play optimally regardless of the outcome.

This is the reality of poker. In any given hand the best player can win and the worst player comes out on top. Yet keep doing it enough time, and its the better player who has all the chips.

In the short term, luck is king.
In the long term, skill is king.

You will often hear about people who complain about getting bad beat. Who got coolered. Who whine about this and that. Some people will say they shouldn't have done this or should've done that because so and so card came. These people are results oriented. That is not the proper way to think about poker.

I see it differently. In poker, a winning players always plays for the long run. They want to make the move that produces the greatest profit if they were to do it over and over again.

In my mind, when I get AA all in preflop, the hand ended. The board can come any 5 cards and which cards fall is PURE LUCK. No one has control over that. It doesn't affect whether or not I played the hand well. So it's irrelevant. Now that doesn't mean be an emotionless robot. But what it does mean, is to not let the cards that fall affect your play. When you got your chips in the middle, you've down what you could. Luck will balance out eventually. Just make sure you get there. Keep your head on straight. Always remember, that no matter what cards fall, you can only analyze how you played before that.

Remember it's a two way street. Don't get cocky because you're winning. Look back. Did you get lucky? Running good is more than just picking up cards. It means connecting with draws more often than normal. Flopping top pair more often than normal. Them missing more often than normal. This is all running good. The AIM conversation is about poker players who think they are extremely talented. In reality they just run good, develop bad habits and eventually go broke. The percentage of "Poker Pros" that really last is pretty low. Many of them have undergone a very strenous examination of their game and understand they play exceptionally.

It takes the right mindset to win at this game. Always play your best. Never let your mind get thrown off track because of the cards. Be honest with how you are playing.

And the money will find it's way to you.

Sunday, February 3, 2008

Progress Post #9: Hold'Em, Omahahaha, and Alcohol, oh my!

Jeff wanted to get mentioned in my blog. There you go. You got mentioned.

Since my last post
Live Cash Games: +$55
Online cash games:+$105.93
Online Tournaments: -$11

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$429
Online cash games: -$22.27
Online Tournaments: +$2,418

So on Friday, we decided we would play a mixed game and alternate between No Limit Hold'Em and Pot Limit Omaha. For those that don't know, Omaha plays exactly like Hold'Em except you have four cards and must use two and only two of your hole cards.

Our lineup for our .25/.50 mixed game
Winston
Bryce
Forest
Jeff
Tim
Chang

Matt and Aki observed, under the premise "it's fun to watch Bryce lose money." Well that's probably true, lol.

Hey look Jeff, you got mentioned again! How lucky.

So the game started off fast... as usual.
We play some omaha and Chang bets three streets with an overpair and totally overplays his hand... if that's all he had. He showed QQ8x and couldve had a possible straight with 98. I folded two pair to him on the river, as did Forest. I get down to about $35 from my $50 buyin.

I get stacked almost immediately.
Chang limps, I raise with AJ, Chang calls.
The flop comes Jc7s4c something similar.
He checks, I bet like $5 he raises to like $15 and I push. He groans and says he's priced in to call. He calls with 78o... and spikes a 8 on the turn. Matt is here too just hanging out, and he is laughing his ass off now.
I just shake my head and reload $50 more.
Then I get the Ah9hTc4c all in against something like KcQh7h2d on a KhQc5h flop. I'm not 100% what my equity is, but I think it's pretty good here, like around 45% or more. I need to find an Omaha equity calculator. It goes brick brick, and I'm out another $50.

I reloaded for $100 more, and the night continues.

We drink some. I tried out some tequila that Chang says was better than Patron. Chang left in his new car, and came back with it after not too long. Tim tried it and said I wouldn't be able to down two shots at once. I asked him if he wanted to bet on it, and when he declined, I downed two shots. Hah, owned.
I must be a lightweight cause just two shots and a little ale, had me buzzed if not drunk. I was definitely playing worse. On the other hand, it also let me set a record, I bluffed Winston twice, in the period of like 5 hands. The third try though cost me my whole stack lol.
Winston looked me up on a J557K 3 flush board, with J7. Well, it's Winston. Standard.
As usual Winston was being a beast. He chased after the bonus with 27 and triple barreled Jeff in a big Omaha pot. Then found out that you can't collect with 27 in Omaha.
Then he min raises Jeff on a 4 flush board on the river and took down another good sized pot.
Jeff, here's your 3rd mention.

I reloaded for 200 more. And eventually get Winston GOOD. Although he got me good too. He had me drink another double shot, this time of Patron. I still haven't found a beer or alcohol mix I like, so I guess when I drink, I'll stick to shots. Anyways, Winston pushed into my top two pair with an OESD. And omg I actually held up. What a concept.

Winston quit after that, and Aki went to sleep. It's around 2 or 3. Matt made a Del Taco run and we got H-ed out of the cheese on our fries. The people who hang out with Rob and Winston knows what that means.

Anyways, Winston quit, Jeff left (you got mentioned again!) and then Chang, Forest, Tim and I played 4 handed for a while. Forest actually cashed out $120 and lost the rest. He was completely smashed for like 2 hours. Later he bought back in then got totally sucked out on by Tim. I ended up $55, since Chang's A7 beat my KK when we got all in on a 642 flop. Standard.

Call of the night: Jeff's call with AJxx on an JT885 on a 3 flush board. It was a super sick call of Chang's all in on the river. I was like wowwwwwwwww what a call. Too bad Chang showed him a straight.

Bluff of the night: Winston's 27 bluff in omaha. That was sick.

Suckout of the night: Tim's AA beats Forest's 98 on the 765 rainbow flop. That was ridiculous, especially since I folded a 6 and Chang folded a 5. The board goes runner 6 6. So sick.

Anyways all and all, it was a fun night.

I actually got a job tutoring, so my time play poker and blog will decrease.

Oh and Jeff. Stop whining. You play fine, everyone has bad days. You're definitely one of the better players I know.

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Progress Report #8: A Really Rough Night, and the Biggest Pot We've Ever Had

Well... All that money I won last week, I just lost and then some. I was pretty unlucky. I ran way below expectation on some very big hands.

Poker results since last post
Live games: -$700
Online cash game play: -$10
Online Tournaments: -$38

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$484
Online cash games: -$128.2
Online Tournaments: +$2,429

I ran pretty bad. These are the spots where I got all in, and my equity in those spots.

I bought in for $100.
I got AKs all in preflop for $150. Somehow all 4 players managed to get it in.

Zach: AsKs
Winston: 77
Rob: 22
Me: AdKd
Result: Winston flops a set and wins.
Pot size: about $600
My expected return: $119.79
In theory, I should expect to get $119.79 out of that pot. While that's not too good, frankly Rob shouldn't have called the huge preflop All in with 22, and if he didn't Winston wouldn't have called with 77. It just worked out well for Winston.

Bought in for another $100.

Zach: KK
Me: QQ
Pot size: About $225
Result: All in preflop and Zach hold up.
My expected return: $42.18
That's pretty bad, but that's what happens when you get into an 80/20. I feel this was a cooler and I'm almost never laying down QQ preflop given the flow of the game.

Bought in for another $100
Rob: KK
Me: QQ
Pot size: About $225 again.
Result: All in preflop again and Rob holds up. Again.
Expected Return: $42.18. Same as above, logic same as above.

Bought in for another $200
Zach: QQ
Me: AsKs
Pot size: $200
Result: All in preflop, and I actually win this one.
Expected Return: $92.42, I won $200 so I won $108.58 than expecation.


Winston: AsTs
Me: AdKd
Pot size: about $450
Result: All in preflop, and Winston sucks out. Figures.
Expected Return: $318.60 I have about 70% equity preflop which is pretty good. Ironically if Rob decided to play his 8s7s, he would've made a straight flush.

Bought in for $200 more.
Zach: KK AGAIN
Me: QQ AGAIN.

Zach raises to 5, Rob calls, Winston calls, I just call to see if I can trap someone.
Flop: Q 7 5 r
Zach and I get all in on the flop
Pot Size: about $600
Result: He turns a King. I have 91.41% equity and lose again. Man I got varienced in the eye last night.
Expected Return: $548.46

Deviation from expectation of these hands: -$962.23.
Yea... I ran bad.


We had a 20 buyin pot last night. In a $0.50/$1.00 game that means the pot was about $2,000.

Winston is down about $500 right now, and decided to reload for $1k. Rob has over $1,600 and Winston's $1,000 pushed the game size to haveing like $3,500 in play between 4 people. It was beyond ridiculous.

4 handed.
Rob has ATo
Winston has Q2o.
Somehow they manged to get $2000 in the middle.
I'm not quite sure how it went down, but all I know is Winston has trip queens, and Rob had middle pair. Rob bet like $150 on the river and Winston pushed all in for like $700 more and Rob snap called. It was unreal.

eh. We're supposed to play a smaller game on Friday. We'll see how it goes.

See you later.