May Update

May

Cash Games

Live $708.00

Tournaments

Live ($862.50)

Poker ($154.50)

Staking $0.00

Other Gambling $4,350.00

Month's Expenses $0.00

Net on month $4,195.50

It's a meh w/e month. I need to get more volume in. Winning so little in live cash is unacceptable.

Rereading old blog posts

I was reading about the hand histories from the PCA two years ago. Man, I feel like I played pretty badly. =/ I would've probably played most of the hands different. Makes me feel like I sucked then. I guess I feel like I play better now.

Playing a big draw

Had a pretty neatish hand today at hustler 5/10.

The game is pretty deepstacked.

Stack sizes approximately and positions:

Small blind --- Mike: 3300

Button -- Zach: 3100

Cutoff --- Me: 1500

Hijack --- Azn Guy: 5000

Two people limp in, including the azn guy in the Hijack. I limp in with Ah 4h right behind him.

Zach raises to 60 on the button. Mike calls, and everyone else calls.
The pot is now $300. Flop is Tc 2h 5h.

Mike leads out for $150. The Azn guy in the middle calls, and I reach my first (and only major) decision in the hand.

• I have a big draw. I can hit a straight with a 3, the nut flush with a heart, and I can hit top pair with an ace. If Mike has top pair, I have 15 outs to win against his hand. I am 54% favorite against a hand such as Ts9s.
• If Mike has a flush draw, and choose to lead out into the field it will probably be either, 6h 3h, Th Xh, or a hand that has a flush draw and two overcards, like QhJh. Against those hands I'm a 80%/20% favorite against the non paired flush draws and a 49%/51% dog against the ThXh
• If he has a set or two pair, I'm in pretty bad shape. Two pair seems pretty unlikely on this flop, and I'm a 66%/33% underdog to the set.
• I don't think Mike will fold many hands to a raise. That's good when I have him beat and bad when he has a set.
  
• The guy in the middle however will often fold to a raise. That's not good given that he is definitely in bad shape against my hand if he has any kind of draw, or likely in bad shape if Mike has a made hand.
• If I call Zach might call or raise on the button. If Zach has an overpair, I have 15 outs. If I raise, he might fold. More than likely though, he will either call or raise. If he raises, that's bad as my hand is better with more players, and I will never get him to fold. If he calls, the other players might get scared he has an overpair and fold top pair.
• My hand has one very disguised out. The three gives me a straight and it looks like it doesn't improve anyone. I am very likely to get paid on a three. The heart on the other hand will likely kill action unless someone has a set or a flush.

Overall it's close, but I decide to call.

Zach raises to $600. Mike tanks for a bit then calls. The Azn guy in the middle folds.

I could call here, but given I think my hand has really good equity three way, and that neither of them will ever fold, I decide to instead jam it in.

33% is required to break even, and any higher would make raising better than calling. Here are some numbers.

• If Mike has TT, and zach has AA, the equity split is Mike 62%/Zach 3.8%/ I have 34%.
• If Mike has JhTh, Zach has AA, Mike has 14%/Zach has 44%/I have 41%
• If Mike has JhTh, Zach has KK, Mike is 14%/Zach is 36%/I have 49%

Those are going to be the most common scenarios give our take a few percentage points.
Zach might have a set and Mike might have a flush draw which is the worst case scenario at putting me at 29%, but in every other scenario I have over 33% equity, which makes getting it in now really good.

If I was really certain someone had a set, I would instead call and see if the board pairs. However, in this spot I didn't think anyone had a set all that often.

Zach calls my 890 more or w/e it is, then Mike goes all in over the top. Zach calls that too.
We all flip over our hands, Zach has AA, and Mike has KK. Pretty close to the best case scenario.

Mike 6.7%/Zach 48.8%/I have 44.3%

We end up running it twice, I hit a three for a straight the first time, and catch the 3h for a straight flush the second time, and end up scooping a 4.7k pot.

It's nice to run hot.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce

April Update

Another losing month, but not pokerwise.

April

Cash Games

Live $5,409.50

Online $994.20

Tournaments

Online $0.00

Live ($157.50)

Poker $6,246.20

Staking ($2,920.00)

Other Gambling ($5,070.00)

Month's Expenses $0.00

Net on month ($1,443.80)

It's pretty absurd how all I do is win money and then give it away in other ways.

Staking has generally been pretty bad for me up to this point, but I guess I'm a glutton for punishment. I feel confidant the player I am staking is a winner and is trustworthy. He is running bad, and has made great efforts to improve. I think I'll continue to stake him.

As for the other gambling, it was all in prop bets. Some of them were even money, and some I was a favorite in it. I was never an underdog. The biggest prop I had was where he went all in blind for $1,000 and I look at my first card. If it's a 6 or lower, I fold, otherwise I call. Obviously if he's playing the all the hands he's dealt and I'm folding my worst hands, I'm turning a profit.

I ran it in poker stove, and I'm 51.7%. That doesn't seem like a big favorite, but that means I have a 3.4% edge. That isn't a lot, but casinos operate on a smaller edge than that. I would do it again, if I had the chance, I just hope I don't lose another 5k doing it.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce

Sick grinding session + a cool 5/5 hand

Last night I played 14 hours of 5/5 PLO.

I was up 1700 earlier, then went on a ridiculous downswing. I lost all my profit and another 3k. It was followed by an epic comeback over the course of 8 hours where I won back the 3k I lost and booked a $600 win in the game.

I was still down 300 for the day, but after being down over 3k, it felt like a win to me. I really earned it to be basically break even.

I had a pretty cool hand playing 5/5 NLHE there too.
UTG raises to $20. I'm UTG+1 and call with 6h 6d. The button calls, and a youngish kid in the BB calls. Flop is 8h 7h 5s. The BB leads for 50. UTG folds, and I flat. We go heads up to the turn, which is a 3h. He checks, but I notice he doesn't double check his hole cards. I bet 110 trying to get him to fold hands like 8x or TT no heart. He decides to call. River is the Jh. He bets 120, and I tank then call.

Here are my thoughts.

• I think it's hard for him to have the Ah, Kh or Qh, because that would require him to lead out on the flop with one of those cards. What could it be? A8? That's possible, but my instinct tells me he wouldn't call an UTG raise with A8o. What about a hand like AQ? Also possible, but I don't think he would just lead into 3 players as a bluff. He could have a hand like AA, but I assume he would 3bet AA, KK and QQ preflop. So it seems really hard for him to have a big heart like he's representing. I think we can remove most big heart combos from his range.

• JJ with a heart would be possible except the Jh is on the board so that's no longer a concern.

• Could he have the Th or 9h? I think the answer is yes. Calling with T9o or 89o seems more reasonable than A8o. If he flopped top pair with 9h 8x, or an open ended straight draw with T9, he might lead the flop and check call the turn. He could also have 99 or TT with a heart. But he also didn't double check his cards, which leads me to believe it's less likely he has an offsuit hand. I think if he had a pair of red tens or nines, he might not need to check, but otherwise he probably would. It's also possible he just remember his suits, but that's pretty uncommon. I'd say TTh, and 99h are most likely in this catagory.

• But would he bet the river with those hands? He might, but it would be a pretty thin valuebet. The vast majority of people would just check and hope to check down and win. If he did choose to bet it would probably be something like what he bet, which is somewhat concerning.

• What could he be bluffing with? There doesn't seem like much missed. Is it possible he is turning a pair into a bluff? Say like a hand like A8d, which knows it pretty much can't win anymore, but he thinks he might get me to fold? This seems like a strike against calling

• What is my table image? Earlier I folded top pair on a four flush board. Then I did it again. He knew I folded top pair both time, so there is some chance he could be thinking about that and bluffing. Maybe he isn't though, so I probably shouldn't put too much stock in this.

• I am getting good pot odds. His bet of $120 is laying me around 4.5:1 odds. That's pretty good, I only have to win about 18% of the time to make a call correct. I think I'm good often enough to call. So calling is +EV

• Could raising be be better than calling? I only have about $150 more. If I raise, could I get him to fold a better hand? It seems unlikely. Could he call with a worse hand? It seems like it's very hard for him to have a smaller heart unless he has the 5h. Even so, he might not call a raise. There doesn't seem to be much merit to raising, so calling is better.

I call.

He has 7d 8d for flopped two pair. He check called the turn when the heart came in, and decided to bluff river on the four flush.

Poker is so much fun when you figure out exactly what's going on.


Bryce

I'll see you across the felt.

Online Poker is FUBAR

I think the whole thing is pretty ridiculous. It doesn't bother me personally that much. I have less than 7k online right now, so it's not a large part of my bankroll. But I know a friend that has 120k stuck online, and two that have around 30-40k. Those guys pretty much just played online professionally. It really sucks for them. I mean, I can't even imagine what it would be like if they didn't live nearby a casino.

Like let's say they didn't end up going to school. And they were making 100k a year playing poker online. Now, they can't play online. And maybe they live in the middle of nowhere. How could they make money? Get a job? Work at McDonald's for $7/hr? They have no advanced education, not many marketable skills. Seems like they are getting punished for no good reason.

And that doesn't even mention the people who just play poker online casually. What about my dad? He plays $0.05/$0.10 online. Why is that so bad? Frankly I think the government has the wrong perspective of online poker.

That said, this is a justified case. The companies were legitimately using fraud to get around the law. So I'm not saying they are in the wrong. Just that they are too zealous about it.

Whatever, I play live poker. I knew this could happen after the UIGEA got passed as part of the Safe Port Act. Hopefully, the live games will get better. I think there should be a large influx of new players, many of which will be casual players. There will be a lot of good regs too, but overall it might actually soften the games. I kinda doubt it though, but who knows.

I'll see you across the actual felt.

Bryce

Almost a 10k pot at 5/5 PLO

I had this ridiculous hand last night playing 5/5 pot limit omaha at Hustler.

Relevant stack sizes
Limper: $2,300.

Daniel: $5,500

Me: $7,000

It's 4 handed, and the cutoff limps in. Daniel, a good, aggresive regular raises to $25 on the button. I call with KdJdJc2c in the SB. The fish calls, and we take a flop. The flop is Js 6c 7d. I check, the fish checks, and Daniel bets 70. I check raise to 170, and Daniel calls. The turn is the Ac, giving me a Jack high flush draw to go along with my set. I bet 420, and he pots it, making it 1680 to go. I go into the tank, and plan out the rest of the hand in my head.

These are my thoughts.

If he had 66, he wouldn't raise the turn. It's behind all the hands I'm going to come back over the top with.
If he had 77, he would've probably not raised the turn. If he was going to raise somewhere, he would've probably done it on the flop.
If he had AJ, he has blockers to the high sets, but I don't think he's going to try to use that to bluff me off a lower set.
If he has a wrap, like 789T, he would've either raised the flop when he's flipping, or ahead, rather than waiting till the turn.

If he had Aces with a straight draw, like AA45, he would play his hand exactly like this.

More general thoughts,
He probably would never try to bluff me in this spot, I've shown too much strength. That would means he would never expect me to fold. A pot sized bet with Aces makes sense, cause it maximizes value and protects from wraps.

I do have a flush draw. I think it's almost impossible for him to have higher clubs, given I think he has to have aces with a straight draw. If I call and hit my flush on the river, I don't know whether he will call a bet. I would probably bet around $2,500. I expect him to fold to a pot sized bet. The odds I'm getting do not justify a call if my set is not good, and I need to hit a flush.

I do have 1 out I can stack him on. It's not negligible, but it's not a lot of equity either.

I am unsure if I could actually find a fold on the river if I bricked the river. I might change my mind or do something else stupid.

If I think I have the best hand now, I'm better off going all in now.

I folded, and rabbit hunted. I would've hit the three of clubs.

Pretty sick, I would've got there. He didn't show his hand, but he said he had AA89. I don't really have any reason to believe otherwise. I don't think he'll go broke this deep with less than the nuts.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce