Playing a big draw

Had a pretty neatish hand today at hustler 5/10.

The game is pretty deepstacked.

Stack sizes approximately and positions:

Small blind --- Mike: 3300

Button -- Zach: 3100

Cutoff --- Me: 1500

Hijack --- Azn Guy: 5000

Two people limp in, including the azn guy in the Hijack. I limp in with Ah 4h right behind him.

Zach raises to 60 on the button. Mike calls, and everyone else calls.
The pot is now $300. Flop is Tc 2h 5h.

Mike leads out for $150. The Azn guy in the middle calls, and I reach my first (and only major) decision in the hand.

• I have a big draw. I can hit a straight with a 3, the nut flush with a heart, and I can hit top pair with an ace. If Mike has top pair, I have 15 outs to win against his hand. I am 54% favorite against a hand such as Ts9s.
• If Mike has a flush draw, and choose to lead out into the field it will probably be either, 6h 3h, Th Xh, or a hand that has a flush draw and two overcards, like QhJh. Against those hands I'm a 80%/20% favorite against the non paired flush draws and a 49%/51% dog against the ThXh
• If he has a set or two pair, I'm in pretty bad shape. Two pair seems pretty unlikely on this flop, and I'm a 66%/33% underdog to the set.
• I don't think Mike will fold many hands to a raise. That's good when I have him beat and bad when he has a set.
  
• The guy in the middle however will often fold to a raise. That's not good given that he is definitely in bad shape against my hand if he has any kind of draw, or likely in bad shape if Mike has a made hand.
• If I call Zach might call or raise on the button. If Zach has an overpair, I have 15 outs. If I raise, he might fold. More than likely though, he will either call or raise. If he raises, that's bad as my hand is better with more players, and I will never get him to fold. If he calls, the other players might get scared he has an overpair and fold top pair.
• My hand has one very disguised out. The three gives me a straight and it looks like it doesn't improve anyone. I am very likely to get paid on a three. The heart on the other hand will likely kill action unless someone has a set or a flush.

Overall it's close, but I decide to call.

Zach raises to $600. Mike tanks for a bit then calls. The Azn guy in the middle folds.

I could call here, but given I think my hand has really good equity three way, and that neither of them will ever fold, I decide to instead jam it in.

33% is required to break even, and any higher would make raising better than calling. Here are some numbers.

• If Mike has TT, and zach has AA, the equity split is Mike 62%/Zach 3.8%/ I have 34%.
• If Mike has JhTh, Zach has AA, Mike has 14%/Zach has 44%/I have 41%
• If Mike has JhTh, Zach has KK, Mike is 14%/Zach is 36%/I have 49%

Those are going to be the most common scenarios give our take a few percentage points.
Zach might have a set and Mike might have a flush draw which is the worst case scenario at putting me at 29%, but in every other scenario I have over 33% equity, which makes getting it in now really good.

If I was really certain someone had a set, I would instead call and see if the board pairs. However, in this spot I didn't think anyone had a set all that often.

Zach calls my 890 more or w/e it is, then Mike goes all in over the top. Zach calls that too.
We all flip over our hands, Zach has AA, and Mike has KK. Pretty close to the best case scenario.

Mike 6.7%/Zach 48.8%/I have 44.3%

We end up running it twice, I hit a three for a straight the first time, and catch the 3h for a straight flush the second time, and end up scooping a 4.7k pot.

It's nice to run hot.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce