Relevant stack sizes
Limper: $2,300.
It's 4 handed, and the cutoff limps in. Daniel, a good, aggresive regular raises to $25 on the button. I call with KdJdJc2c in the SB. The fish calls, and we take a flop. The flop is Js 6c 7d. I check, the fish checks, and Daniel bets 70. I check raise to 170, and Daniel calls. The turn is the Ac, giving me a Jack high flush draw to go along with my set. I bet 420, and he pots it, making it 1680 to go. I go into the tank, and plan out the rest of the hand in my head.
If he had 66, he wouldn't raise the turn. It's behind all the hands I'm going to come back over the top with.
If he had 77, he would've probably not raised the turn. If he was going to raise somewhere, he would've probably done it on the flop.
If he had AJ, he has blockers to the high sets, but I don't think he's going to try to use that to bluff me off a lower set.
If he has a wrap, like 789T, he would've either raised the flop when he's flipping, or ahead, rather than waiting till the turn.
Limper: $2,300.
Daniel: $5,500
Me: $7,000
It's 4 handed, and the cutoff limps in. Daniel, a good, aggresive regular raises to $25 on the button. I call with KdJdJc2c in the SB. The fish calls, and we take a flop. The flop is Js 6c 7d. I check, the fish checks, and Daniel bets 70. I check raise to 170, and Daniel calls. The turn is the Ac, giving me a Jack high flush draw to go along with my set. I bet 420, and he pots it, making it 1680 to go. I go into the tank, and plan out the rest of the hand in my head.
These are my thoughts.
If he had 66, he wouldn't raise the turn. It's behind all the hands I'm going to come back over the top with.
If he had 77, he would've probably not raised the turn. If he was going to raise somewhere, he would've probably done it on the flop.
If he had AJ, he has blockers to the high sets, but I don't think he's going to try to use that to bluff me off a lower set.
If he has a wrap, like 789T, he would've either raised the flop when he's flipping, or ahead, rather than waiting till the turn.
If he had Aces with a straight draw, like AA45, he would play his hand exactly like this.
More general thoughts,
He probably would never try to bluff me in this spot, I've shown too much strength. That would means he would never expect me to fold. A pot sized bet with Aces makes sense, cause it maximizes value and protects from wraps.
He probably would never try to bluff me in this spot, I've shown too much strength. That would means he would never expect me to fold. A pot sized bet with Aces makes sense, cause it maximizes value and protects from wraps.
I do have a flush draw. I think it's almost impossible for him to have higher clubs, given I think he has to have aces with a straight draw. If I call and hit my flush on the river, I don't know whether he will call a bet. I would probably bet around $2,500. I expect him to fold to a pot sized bet. The odds I'm getting do not justify a call if my set is not good, and I need to hit a flush.
I do have 1 out I can stack him on. It's not negligible, but it's not a lot of equity either.
I am unsure if I could actually find a fold on the river if I bricked the river. I might change my mind or do something else stupid.
If I think I have the best hand now, I'm better off going all in now.
I folded, and rabbit hunted. I would've hit the three of clubs.
Pretty sick, I would've got there. He didn't show his hand, but he said he had AA89. I don't really have any reason to believe otherwise. I don't think he'll go broke this deep with less than the nuts.
I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce
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