Sick grinding session + a cool 5/5 hand

Last night I played 14 hours of 5/5 PLO.

I was up 1700 earlier, then went on a ridiculous downswing. I lost all my profit and another 3k. It was followed by an epic comeback over the course of 8 hours where I won back the 3k I lost and booked a $600 win in the game.

I was still down 300 for the day, but after being down over 3k, it felt like a win to me. I really earned it to be basically break even.

I had a pretty cool hand playing 5/5 NLHE there too.
UTG raises to $20. I'm UTG+1 and call with 6h 6d. The button calls, and a youngish kid in the BB calls. Flop is 8h 7h 5s. The BB leads for 50. UTG folds, and I flat. We go heads up to the turn, which is a 3h. He checks, but I notice he doesn't double check his hole cards. I bet 110 trying to get him to fold hands like 8x or TT no heart. He decides to call. River is the Jh. He bets 120, and I tank then call.

Here are my thoughts.

• I think it's hard for him to have the Ah, Kh or Qh, because that would require him to lead out on the flop with one of those cards. What could it be? A8? That's possible, but my instinct tells me he wouldn't call an UTG raise with A8o. What about a hand like AQ? Also possible, but I don't think he would just lead into 3 players as a bluff. He could have a hand like AA, but I assume he would 3bet AA, KK and QQ preflop. So it seems really hard for him to have a big heart like he's representing. I think we can remove most big heart combos from his range.

• JJ with a heart would be possible except the Jh is on the board so that's no longer a concern.

• Could he have the Th or 9h? I think the answer is yes. Calling with T9o or 89o seems more reasonable than A8o. If he flopped top pair with 9h 8x, or an open ended straight draw with T9, he might lead the flop and check call the turn. He could also have 99 or TT with a heart. But he also didn't double check his cards, which leads me to believe it's less likely he has an offsuit hand. I think if he had a pair of red tens or nines, he might not need to check, but otherwise he probably would. It's also possible he just remember his suits, but that's pretty uncommon. I'd say TTh, and 99h are most likely in this catagory.

• But would he bet the river with those hands? He might, but it would be a pretty thin valuebet. The vast majority of people would just check and hope to check down and win. If he did choose to bet it would probably be something like what he bet, which is somewhat concerning.

• What could he be bluffing with? There doesn't seem like much missed. Is it possible he is turning a pair into a bluff? Say like a hand like A8d, which knows it pretty much can't win anymore, but he thinks he might get me to fold? This seems like a strike against calling

• What is my table image? Earlier I folded top pair on a four flush board. Then I did it again. He knew I folded top pair both time, so there is some chance he could be thinking about that and bluffing. Maybe he isn't though, so I probably shouldn't put too much stock in this.

• I am getting good pot odds. His bet of $120 is laying me around 4.5:1 odds. That's pretty good, I only have to win about 18% of the time to make a call correct. I think I'm good often enough to call. So calling is +EV

• Could raising be be better than calling? I only have about $150 more. If I raise, could I get him to fold a better hand? It seems unlikely. Could he call with a worse hand? It seems like it's very hard for him to have a smaller heart unless he has the 5h. Even so, he might not call a raise. There doesn't seem to be much merit to raising, so calling is better.

I call.

He has 7d 8d for flopped two pair. He check called the turn when the heart came in, and decided to bluff river on the four flush.

Poker is so much fun when you figure out exactly what's going on.


Bryce

I'll see you across the felt.