Friday, February 5, 2010

Some Interesting Recent Hands

Warning - Strategic Content below


February started off badly for me with three straight losing days in a row. Today I managed to book a win an turn it around. Here are some interesting hands of late.

From 2/4 online

Villian is fishy over small sample.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players

MP1: $630.20
MP2: $300.00
Hero (CO): $400.00
BTN: $314.60
SB: $977.50
BB: $144.90
UTG: $400.00
UTG+1: $400.00
UTG+2: $414.70

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is CO with Th 9h
5 folds, Hero raises to $12, BTN calls $12, 2 folds

Flop: ($30.00) 8c 8d 5h (2 players)
Hero bets $20, BTN calls $20

Turn: ($70.00) Jh (2 players)
Hero bets $48, BTN calls $48

River: ($166.00) Jc (2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $100, Hero raises to $320 all in (He only has $134 left)

What kinds of hands do you think the BTN has here? I was thinking he has some busted straight draws, some counterfeited pocket pairs, maybe an 8 that he decided to slowplay the whole way. I don't think it's likely he has a Jack but he's fishy, so I thought he might float with overcards. In retrospect, I think shoving is bad because if I have him beat, he'll fold, and there aren't many hands I lose to that he'll fold to a shove.

I can break down his hand range into this
Busted straight draws - 97, 96, 76, 74, 46 with 97 and 67 being most likely.

Counterfeited pairs - 22, 33, 44, 66, 77, 5x and I beat 95 or smaller kicker, chop with T5, and lose to Q5 or better

Full House - 8x and Jx, and 55. None of these are folding if I raise.
Pocket pairs - 99 through AA. I don't know if he would flat call the whole way with these hands, but if he would and he still bets the river I doubt he's folding.

No pair - Ace high might fold, but probably wouldn't bet, king high and queen high definitely are folding for a raise.

So basically I can only get Queen high or king high to fold with a raise, and that's not worth risking an additional $134 to try to get a fold from those. It seems check calling with ten high is the best option if I decide not to fold. Seems backwards, but the game is weird sometimes.

As it turns out, he had KK and I lose.


Hand 2.
Villian is mostly unknown.

Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official
2+2 Hand Converter

BTN: $394.00
SB: $300.00
Hero (BB): $522.60
UTG: $400.00
UTG+1: $400.00
UTG+2: $119.60
MP1: $406.00
MP2: $450.00
CO: $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BB with Qd Jh
6 folds, BTN raises to $12, 1 fold, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($25.00) Td Ad 2c (2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $24, Hero raises to $68, BTN calls $44 e

Turn: ($161.00) Ah (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

River: ($161.00) Tc (2 players)
Hero checks,
BTN bets $72, Hero requests TIME, Hero calls $72


In my opinion, it's rare that some bets full pot on boards like this. People realize that most of the time when they bet this board after a button raise, they will be bluffing and bet smaller for to save money. And then they also bet smaller with an ace to disguise their hand. A ten wouldn't bet so big, because it's hard to get value from worse. So I think he has a draw, maybe a gutshot, maybe a flush draw. It might be better to call here, but I would be more inclined to do that if I had King high for a stronger no pair. Either way, if I didn't have the gutshot draw I would just fold.
After check/raising and getting called, I decided I would continue betting on certain turn cards, but the Ace is a bad card to continue on. If I'm wrong and he has an Ace he will never fold. If he has a Ten, he may decide now I have a flush draw since the odds of me having an ace went down. So I check, and decide to make a decision based on his betsizing. When he checks behind, I figure my original read is correct and he does in fact have a draw. The river double pairs the board and I check planning on him to either bluff his draw, or check down and lose. He bets $72 into a sizable pot. This is a pretty small bet and I read it as a cheap bluff attempt. It could be a ten, but it seems likely a ten would bet the turn to protect from the obvious draws that could check raise the flop and then check the turn. I call and he has Kd 4d. Opps, good read, but he still beat me!



Wild hand from the Hustler
The 5-10 game was kinda dead until these three guys sat down. I'm pretty sure they came together, and they were all weak players compared to the average in that game.

The entire table limps in!, and then the BB raises to 100 more, the first two limpers fold, and then everyone calls before the small blind shoves for 75 more. Everyone calls that as well. I have 7d 4d. 185 x 7 is 1295, so less the rake we have almost $1,300 in the pot before even seeing a flop!

The flop is Jd 4c 6h
The PFR bets 200, one guy calls, I call getting 8.5:1 odds, (but praying for raise behind, although I think someone needs at least two pair to raise here) and one other player calls.

The turn is the Qd, and the pot is now $2,100. The PFR bets $400, the other guy calls again, and I call. The fourth player folds.

Pot is now $3,300 when the river is the 5d, the PFR disgustingly checks (not sure what he's afraid of, good check I guess), the other guy shoves for $1,500, I call and PFR folds.

My flush wins the pot against the J5o, and the all in player's unknown hand to scoop a 6.3k pot.

I give lessons on how to run hot, only $500/hr.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce

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