No Limit Strategy #2: Sizing Bluffs Effectively

Bluffing is a critical skill in poker. And misunderstood by most players.

When people think of No Limit Hold'em, they often think of the WPT or WSOP where they see professional making daring bluffs with 6 high for their entire stacks, or make a loose call on the river to snap a bluff off. Then the people watching go out and play and lose their entire stack.

They often wonder why. They think "Well, it worked for them. Why not me?"

The answer to that question is so incredibly complex. The things that affect the success of a bluff could fill a book.

I think bluffing is the most complicated part of poker in No Limit Hold'em. And one of the most critical skills.

It's easy to beat someone who never bluffs. Whenever they check, they will fold every time they have nothing. Anytime they bet you just fold. If you have an extremely strong hand, you know they have some sort of hand, so it's easy to extract value. A person who never bluffs is extremely exploitable. And the basis of the game is exploiting suboptimal play in order to win money.

Bluffing is a very simple concept. You try to represent a strong hand in order to get your opponent to fold a hand better than your own. Still it's a bit more complicated then that.

The goal of a bluff isn't necessarily to win the pot. It's to turn a profit, and you will only need to win the pot a certain percentage of the time to make that work.

If the goal was just to win the pot, the most effective way to do that would be to push all in (most of the time). However, doing that will actually cost you money in the long run.

Bluffing makes money by forcing them to fold a hand that has equity. When you do this you make a profit, because all of the equity they would normally have goes to you. Sometimes you actually want a worse hand then yours to fold, because they actually have the correct odds to call you and attempt to draw out. For example say you have AA and they have a gutshot straight flush draw. They have 1.5:1 odds to see the next two cards. Despite being a favorite you actually prefer them to fold, so you receive the entire pot, as opposed to only part of it. (The part that your equity would entitle you to, if you ran it an infinite number of times)

The profitability of a bluff is rather straight forward. I am going to ignore future table image (known as metagame) in your expected value calculation.

Bluff size = $B
Current Potsize = $CP
net profit when called after bluff = $AP

Profit = ($CP) x (% chance your opponent folds) + ($AP) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% time your opponent calls) x (% your opponent's equity when your opponent calls) - ($B) x (% chance your opponent raises)

In layman's terms. The profitability of a bluff is determined by how often your opponent folds, how often they call and you win anyways, and how often they raise. (assuming you fold when they raise)

Of course a river bluff is simpler. Either it works or it doesn't.

Profit = $CP * (% of time opponent folds) - $B*(% time opponent calls)

Because of this lack of equity on future streets, river bluffs need to be more succesful than ones made on the flop or turn. However since the pot is larger it does tend to work well, especially if you have been betting earlier.

Example time. Let's say you have a flush draw with exactly 20% chance to win on the river.

You make a pot sized bet of $10 into a $10 pot. There will be no action on the river.
You win $10 immediately when it succeeds. You think this will happen about 50% of the time.
You will win $30 when the flush comes in which will be 20% of the time. But you are only called 25% of the time.You will be raised 25% of the time and will fold when raised.

So.
When your bluff succeeds, you win $10 immediately. This happens 50% of the time.
When your bluff is raised, you lose $10 immediately. This happens 25% of the time.
When your bluff is called, which it will be 25% of the time, you will win net $20 20% of the time, and lost $10 the other 80%.

$10*0.5-$10*0.25+$20*0.25*0.2-$10*0.25*0.8 = $1.5

Your bluff will show a $1.50 profit each time you make it.

Now, these numbers were just picked out of thin air. The real skill in bluff is determining what the numbers really are. The best you can really do is estimate, but the better you estimate the more you will win.

There is of course another entire realm to bluffing, your opponent. But this part is important. Because if you think your opponent will fold his hand to a bluff, that doesn't mean a huge overbet bluff is profitable. The size of our bluff is just as critical as when you decide to bluff. The two parts together are what bluffing is really about. And the one I just showed you is the easy part to learn.

See you across the felt.
Bryce

Progress Post #10: The most degenerate home game ever! Courtesy of Winston

I wrote this as I was playing, and then put it online at a later date. If my thoughts seem a bit jumbled that's why.
February 21st - Update. I played a home game last night. I won $237. Nothing extremely notable, I caught a 2 outter on Winston for a good sized pot (JUSTICE!), and Nate and Rob were stacking chips. I got pretty lucky I also outflopped AA with 88 in a huge preflop pot.

---

I'm at the home game right now. Mike, Marshall and other people are making fun of me for writing this. lol, they'll probably end up reading this anyways. Nate is whining he still hasn't gotten mentioned. Congratulations Nate, read the line previous to this one.

I'm not playing right now. I took a break and got some food. Chipotle obv.

It's been a pretty swingy month so far. I was down about $1,000 then I took down another tournament. This time on FTP. $24+2 6m KO NLHE tourney. $2,795 for first. I got 10 KOs along the way for another $40. Jeff was complaining that me winning that took my bankroll above his. lol, out of everyone sweating me on the final table he was the only person who was rooting for me to lose.

Since my last post, Updated as of February 21st.
Live Cash Games: -$127
Online cash games: +$382.14
Online Tournaments: +$2244.4

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$556 (I swear one of these days, I'll actually win a monster pot when I'm a monster favorite. Wait till you see this one.)
Online cash games: +$359.87.
Online Tournaments: +$4662.4

I ran pretty good in the tournament. I plan to withdraw about $2,000.

LOL Nate just overbet pushed the flop with AA and got called by top pair and held up. Nice play Nate, nice play. Excellent value push, being drunk is definitely +EV.

Our group for tonight includes:
SK Winston
Mitch Stephan
Nate (the drunk guy) Zach
Another Nate Alex
Marshall Jeff
Mike Me

Aki is watching as always, and Rob decided to just deal tonight.

As usual the game has turned into a degenerate drunken fest of gambling. Who am I kidding?
It starts that way. Nate and I played Ro-Sham-Bo for $5 while we were waiting for the game to start. I trashed him 3-1 best out of 5.

I'm playing again now. Mitch had to go back and work in SK's spot. What a degen. Lol.

I get TT vs 99 vs AA on a T9x flop. I triple through Winston and Marshall and propel my stack up to over $200. I'm only in for $40.

Oh man, I got him.
I just won a 9.5 buyin pot of Winston. With K3o. Preflop.

I straddled, there is some action and then Winston makes a monster push for like $200+.
It's folded around to me and I have a sick feeling I'm good here. I think about his hand range. He doesn't tend to push in unraised pots at all, but I doubt he do it with AA. The 72o rule is in effect, so I have to consider that. He also loves 93o (cause he bluffed with it against me before). 63o (cause he keeps hitting straights with that hand), and T8o (the Chuck Norris). I figure there might be some other random chaff, but I think since I dominate 2 of the 4 hands I think are most likely, I decide to call. He also told me he'd give me $25 to call him, which makes me think he was trying to convince me to fold. I probably shouldn't have wrote that. Now, it's gonna be a stupid mind game next time he does it.

I hold up, he has 72o, and I scoop a huge pot.

Some action goes down, SK makes some sick plays that will be described in detail later.

I just folded AQs with the nut flush. Wow. I am really playing on it tonight. I think my hand reading skills are like really good at the moment.

Winston straddled, Nate minraises, I decide to flat call on the button. Winston calls. The flop is Th7s6s. Winston bets out for $5, Nate calls, I call. Turn is the 5s, and I'm like nice, I got there. Winston bets $15, Nate raises to $50, and I get a sick feeling that I'm no good here. I can't just fold my hand and just calling seems terrible there, so I raise to $100 which puts Nate all in. Winston thinks and calls.
I immediately put him on a straight flush.
I can't explain it. I mean 9s8s makes perfect sense given the way he played it, it's just so sick. How can I put him on one hand?

Nate calls all in.

The river is a 6h pairing the board. Winston pushes for $300+ and I fold my cards face up. I call out Winston with a straight flush. Winston flips over 9s8s, Nate has JsTs.

Megacooler much?

Ugh, Winston got me again. Reraised pot I have AJs, he has AQs. Flop is AJ5. Turn is Q.

Winston: Standard.

He's watching me type this now.

and... this is the big hand of the night. I open to $3 with KK. Winston reraised to $8, and I decided to just call to try to trap him. The flop comes out Kh Jh 5d.
I check.
Winston bets $15.
I raise to $45
Winston reraises to $75.
I reraise to $275.
He thinks for a while and finally calls.

I consider pushing all in in the dark. I probably should've.
The turn is an Ace. I push for another $325. Winston thinks and thinks and thinks. He says he has AK. I don't say anything. He eventually calls.
Me: I got you beat for now.
Winston looks at the river card.
Winston: Ship it.
Me: Fuck.

He scoops a $1,200 pot in a $0.25/$0.50. So sick.

Rob wants me to say he practically pissed his pants when he heard me go off.

Winston feels sorry, so he gives me $200. But he says he's gonna take it all back. And he does, 3 hands later.

SK gets an entire paragraph dedicated to him.
First he folds 98 on a JsTs7h. The sick part is Winston would've caught on him if he played it out.

Then I read him perfectly, and he shows me QQ on a KQQ flop. I folded KJ lol.

Then he makes a terrible laydown and check/folds AK to me on an Ace high flop. I would've runner runnered him. Somehow he manged to come out up some money anyways.

Awards for the night:
Sickest fold: SK folding 98o with the nutz. LOL
Runner up goes to me for folding the nut flush.

Biggest bad beat: Winston Clearly.

I gotta say despite what happened, I felt I played extremely well. Near perfect. I got away from lots of second best hands and snapped bluffs. IMO, I feel I should've left with like 1200+, but the forces of the universe conspired against me. Well there is always tonight. I got midterms coming up, so I won't have an update for a while.

Soft Skills #1: Understanding The True Nature Of Poker

In poker, there are two kinds of players. Those at war with luck and those that embrace it.

THSpanda8: have u ever read a book called fooled by randomness by taleb
modoaddict: nope
modoaddict: is it good?
THSpanda8: its a good book about the stock market but the concepts apply really well to poker also. its a pretty famous finance book
modoaddict: hm
modoaddict: interesting
THSpanda8: haha this is a one sentence summary of the book but tell me if it doesnt sound more like poker to u
THSpanda8: "the book looks at egotistical wall street types who experience temporary success and huge bonuses, but dont understand that they are only temporarily lucky. Shortly thereafter they are out of work and cannot understand why."
modoaddict: LOL
THSpanda8: translate to:
THSpanda8: "the book looks at egotistical poker players who experience temporary success and huge wins, but dont understand that they are only temporarily lucky. Shortly thereafter they are broke and cannot understand why."

Modoaddict is my screen name.
THSpanda8 is Jeff. He got mentioned a few posts back.

Texas Hold'Em is a game of luck. In any given hand, I can be dealt AA, and so can you. Who gets it is entirely luck. When you have AdKd, whether or not you will improve to beat QQ is entirely luck. Everyone knows this. Poker is inherently a game about luck and catching cards.

Except it's a bit more than that. Because the game is more than just having cards. It's about what you do with them.

Texas Hold'Em is a game of skill. The best players consistantly win tournaments and make a living off a game where each person could be dealt the winning hand at any given time. It's entirely luck when it comes down to who is dealt AA. But it's entirely skill that determines how much you win or lose with it. And furthermore, sometimes the most skilled player will lose more than the worst player in a given hand. Sometimes the worse player will win more, but the goal is to play optimally regardless of the outcome.

This is the reality of poker. In any given hand the best player can win and the worst player comes out on top. Yet keep doing it enough time, and its the better player who has all the chips.

In the short term, luck is king.
In the long term, skill is king.

You will often hear about people who complain about getting bad beat. Who got coolered. Who whine about this and that. Some people will say they shouldn't have done this or should've done that because so and so card came. These people are results oriented. That is not the proper way to think about poker.

I see it differently. In poker, a winning players always plays for the long run. They want to make the move that produces the greatest profit if they were to do it over and over again.

In my mind, when I get AA all in preflop, the hand ended. The board can come any 5 cards and which cards fall is PURE LUCK. No one has control over that. It doesn't affect whether or not I played the hand well. So it's irrelevant. Now that doesn't mean be an emotionless robot. But what it does mean, is to not let the cards that fall affect your play. When you got your chips in the middle, you've down what you could. Luck will balance out eventually. Just make sure you get there. Keep your head on straight. Always remember, that no matter what cards fall, you can only analyze how you played before that.

Remember it's a two way street. Don't get cocky because you're winning. Look back. Did you get lucky? Running good is more than just picking up cards. It means connecting with draws more often than normal. Flopping top pair more often than normal. Them missing more often than normal. This is all running good. The AIM conversation is about poker players who think they are extremely talented. In reality they just run good, develop bad habits and eventually go broke. The percentage of "Poker Pros" that really last is pretty low. Many of them have undergone a very strenous examination of their game and understand they play exceptionally.

It takes the right mindset to win at this game. Always play your best. Never let your mind get thrown off track because of the cards. Be honest with how you are playing.

And the money will find it's way to you.

Progress Post #9: Hold'Em, Omahahaha, and Alcohol, oh my!

Jeff wanted to get mentioned in my blog. There you go. You got mentioned.

Since my last post
Live Cash Games: +$55
Online cash games:+$105.93
Online Tournaments: -$11

Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: -$429
Online cash games: -$22.27
Online Tournaments: +$2,418

So on Friday, we decided we would play a mixed game and alternate between No Limit Hold'Em and Pot Limit Omaha. For those that don't know, Omaha plays exactly like Hold'Em except you have four cards and must use two and only two of your hole cards.

Our lineup for our .25/.50 mixed game
Winston
Bryce
Forest
Jeff
Tim
Chang

Matt and Aki observed, under the premise "it's fun to watch Bryce lose money." Well that's probably true, lol.

Hey look Jeff, you got mentioned again! How lucky.

So the game started off fast... as usual.
We play some omaha and Chang bets three streets with an overpair and totally overplays his hand... if that's all he had. He showed QQ8x and couldve had a possible straight with 98. I folded two pair to him on the river, as did Forest. I get down to about $35 from my $50 buyin.

I get stacked almost immediately.
Chang limps, I raise with AJ, Chang calls.
The flop comes Jc7s4c something similar.
He checks, I bet like $5 he raises to like $15 and I push. He groans and says he's priced in to call. He calls with 78o... and spikes a 8 on the turn. Matt is here too just hanging out, and he is laughing his ass off now.
I just shake my head and reload $50 more.
Then I get the Ah9hTc4c all in against something like KcQh7h2d on a KhQc5h flop. I'm not 100% what my equity is, but I think it's pretty good here, like around 45% or more. I need to find an Omaha equity calculator. It goes brick brick, and I'm out another $50.

I reloaded for $100 more, and the night continues.

We drink some. I tried out some tequila that Chang says was better than Patron. Chang left in his new car, and came back with it after not too long. Tim tried it and said I wouldn't be able to down two shots at once. I asked him if he wanted to bet on it, and when he declined, I downed two shots. Hah, owned.
I must be a lightweight cause just two shots and a little ale, had me buzzed if not drunk. I was definitely playing worse. On the other hand, it also let me set a record, I bluffed Winston twice, in the period of like 5 hands. The third try though cost me my whole stack lol.
Winston looked me up on a J557K 3 flush board, with J7. Well, it's Winston. Standard.
As usual Winston was being a beast. He chased after the bonus with 27 and triple barreled Jeff in a big Omaha pot. Then found out that you can't collect with 27 in Omaha.
Then he min raises Jeff on a 4 flush board on the river and took down another good sized pot.
Jeff, here's your 3rd mention.

I reloaded for 200 more. And eventually get Winston GOOD. Although he got me good too. He had me drink another double shot, this time of Patron. I still haven't found a beer or alcohol mix I like, so I guess when I drink, I'll stick to shots. Anyways, Winston pushed into my top two pair with an OESD. And omg I actually held up. What a concept.

Winston quit after that, and Aki went to sleep. It's around 2 or 3. Matt made a Del Taco run and we got H-ed out of the cheese on our fries. The people who hang out with Rob and Winston knows what that means.

Anyways, Winston quit, Jeff left (you got mentioned again!) and then Chang, Forest, Tim and I played 4 handed for a while. Forest actually cashed out $120 and lost the rest. He was completely smashed for like 2 hours. Later he bought back in then got totally sucked out on by Tim. I ended up $55, since Chang's A7 beat my KK when we got all in on a 642 flop. Standard.

Call of the night: Jeff's call with AJxx on an JT885 on a 3 flush board. It was a super sick call of Chang's all in on the river. I was like wowwwwwwwww what a call. Too bad Chang showed him a straight.

Bluff of the night: Winston's 27 bluff in omaha. That was sick.

Suckout of the night: Tim's AA beats Forest's 98 on the 765 rainbow flop. That was ridiculous, especially since I folded a 6 and Chang folded a 5. The board goes runner 6 6. So sick.

Anyways all and all, it was a fun night.

I actually got a job tutoring, so my time play poker and blog will decrease.

Oh and Jeff. Stop whining. You play fine, everyone has bad days. You're definitely one of the better players I know.