Weight Loss bet

I started a weight loss bet. I'm really looking forward to it, cause this is the most motivated I've been to get in shape in a long time. I decided to start a blog about it at http://30lbs90days.blogspot.com/

Hopefully it won't just be a log of my failings, I'd really like to lose the weight and keep it off.

Folding Kings Preflop

Last night I folded KK preflop. Let me layout the scenario.

I'm playing 5/5 at a friend's home game. UTG+1 seems very tight and missed an easy valuebet earlier in the night with a set on the river on a AJ7K5 board.
He raised UTG+1 to 20, and gets 3 callers. I'm in the BB, and I look down at two Kings. I make it 115.

He makes it 400 to go in under a second. Everyone else folds. Effective stack are $1,100 to start.

Most people never fold kings, but let's discuss the reasons we would fold, and the reasons we would go all in. We are never flat calling with these stack sizes.

All in
1. We have Kings. Kings are the second best hand in the game and it's really hard to get dealt aces.
2. He could be overvaluing QQ, JJ, AK

3. My table image is somewhat wild

4. He hasn't been at the table that long, so I haven't develop super solid reads yet.

Fold

1. Guy is very tight. Doesn't seem like the type of player to run a move even if I have a loose image. He MIGHT widen his 4bet range, but I assume he's more likely to call my 3bets wider.
2. He raised UTG+1
3. He 4bet huge without even thinking

4. He didn't seem worried at all

5. I saw him flat call AK earlier in the night for a single raise.

6. With 700 more behind, he might fold AK, QQ, JJ. He will never fold AA or KK

7. Although, I've been in a lot of pots, I've mostly just showdown big hands.

After tanking, I fold face up and ask if he has aces.
He shows me QQ.

Oops.

Even though I folded the best hand, I think my logic is pretty sound. I think it's a good fold with what I knew at the time. I won't fold KK for 100bb, but that's because a lot of people will it get it in much lighter when they are shorter.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce

February Update and answer to last hand

I'll start with my hand from my previous blog update.

After going into the tank on the river, I decided to fold. I didn't she would lead a 6 on the river when the board paired, and I didn't think she could be bluffing with anything except something like 7c 5c. I also thought she was convinced I had a straight, and decided to lead big for value, not expecting me to fold a 6, let alone JT. I showed my fold, and I could see she was shocked. At the table she said she had 67, but afterward she quit the game, she told me she had 55. I'm pretty sure she was telling the truth about the set of fives, I don't think she would play 67 like that.

February

Cash Games

Live $587.00
Online ($5,117.28)

Tournaments

Live ($824.75)
Online $3,134.97

Poker ($2,220.06)

Staking ($2,406.00)

Other Gambling $2,051.00
Month's Expenses $0.00
Net on month ($2,575.06)

Got destroyed this month playing online. I also took pieces of Zach playing online, and he also got destroyed when I had a piece of him.

The only good news is I turned a profit on props and blackjack this month. When I took a trip out to Agua Caliente, I found a double deck with small minimums. I decided to give counting a shot when I wasn't drunk, and actually won about $1,000. Might try again, but I've sworn to only play on double or single deck games where I think I'm a favorite to win. No shoes. No matter what. Also, no drinking while playing either.

Hopefully, I can turn things around. Poker has been incredibly frustrating lately. I do have one pretty sick story though.
On Ultimate Bet, there is a bad beat jackpot. Somehow in the past week it got to over a million.

When it was around 950k, I got into a hand where I had 99 vs JJ, and the flop came out J93r. I bet, and he called. The turn was a 9. I bet again, and he raised, and I gleefully got it all in. He missed and I felted him.

I never wanted to lose a pot so bad in my life.
If he rivered the case Jack, I would've gotten about 330k. Would've erased a year or two worth of run bad. Unfortunately, I had to settle for the pot. I ran about 11k below EV that hand. How funny is that. I won the whole pot and ran below EV.

I'll see you across the felt.
Bryce