Today Ultimate Bet made a press release. The finally admited to the cheating scandal that plagued their site for a while now.
The member's of the 2+2 community and other online poker sites used statistical data to determine that some players were cheating. They had an unfair advantage and could see other players hole cards.
It happened on Absolute Poker last year.
Both Ultimate Bet and Absolute hax are owned by the same company. Suprise suprise.
While it rocks the boat on the concept that online poker is safe and secure, for the most part all the other sites seem legitimate.
This post is a good explanation of the cheating at AP. The cover up sure doesn't do them any good.
http://www.poker-prop.net/forum/f23/absolute-poker-ultimate-bet-unethical-142/
This is the summary of the press release from UB. It was handled better than AP, but they don't really mention the fact that they are likely connected or even mention AP at all. They are owned by the same company... you think it would come up.
http://www.ultimatebet.com/poker-news/2008/may/nionio-findings
It's a little disconcerting, but I'm not really that worried. I don't plan to play on UB and AP at all, so it's not that worrying to me. I'm rather confidant that Pokerstars and Full Tilt's business practices are better and more ethical than UB and AP, so I'm not concerned. Regardless, it's bad for online poker's reputation.
On the brighter side, look! New toys from FTP. It's pretty neat. I always loved the commercials, they are fun to watch. There is a little bit of lag which can be negated if you let it load a bit longer, but it's still neat. One downside is you have to refresh the page to see a different commercial. My favorite though is definitely The Mouth and Allen Cunningham. Hahahhahahahhaha...
Thursday, May 29, 2008
No Limit Strategy #4: Preflop Aggresiveness with AK
Ace King is one of the strongest hands in No Limit Hold'Em. The fact is AK is strong enough to justify moving in preflop for your entire stack in most situations.
You get a tl;dr warning here. (too long, don't read) This is the longest post I've written so far and by a good margin.
The dreaded Ace King. Dreaded because of how much trouble it gives beginners. In reality, AK is one of the harder hands to play in the game. Much of the time, it is a favorite preflop or very minor dog. But postflop Ace King, rarely makes more than one pair. However, there is sometimes a simple solution to playing Big Slick that makes life easy on you. And luckily, it's often the most profitable play you can make.
Push all in.
Hahaha... That probably needs some explanation.
When you have AK and are facing a reraise preflop, you should often move all in. You are only dominated by AA and KK, flip with QQ-22 and beat all other hands. In fact, you dominate nearly every non-pocketpair that would call a preflop all in. However, as nearly everything in poker, this play is player dependant. Obviously if you are against someone who only reraises AA and KK, you shouldn't make this play. Against someone who reraises a very wide range of hands and commits a lot of money postflop, it could be better to trap.
Regardless quite often it's correct to reraise all in with AK depending on your stack size. If you have 100bb or less it's often profitable. I wrote up a lot of information on it that I'll add at the end.
Let's examine all our options with AK.
Assuming we are at a full 9 handed table and are UTG. Our opponents are not very strong and have stacks ranging for 20bb to 200bb. You cover everyone at the table. First let's examine our options and lay out a plan for each one.
Fold. Not happening. AK is way to good to be folding UTG. If you fold this, what do you play? Folding AK here is a big mistake.
Call. An interesting play that gives you some options when the action comes back around. The danger is that the action might not come back you and you'll play a limped pot with AK multiway. Not really stellar, but assuming you can get away from it postflop, you can probably still turn a profit postflop.
On the other hand, if someone raises, a new set of options arises. You could call and see a flop, you could reraise or you could fold.
Again folding is almost never correct, you should definitely at least call unless they are extremely tight as in they raise more hands that dominate AK than hands that don't.
Calling can put you in a tricky spot. This is partly because if they have an Ace or King it's less likely you'll hit and therefore you'll miss more often. If they don't they aren't likely to give you action unless they can beat top pair. Your best case scenario is for them to have a dominated hand and give you action, but the odds of that are about the same odds as flopping a set, since you have 2 cards to improve both your hands simultaneously. Doesn't look to hot, but you should call occasionally to mix up your game.
Raising is probably the best choice. Now that you limped in and trapped some money in the middle, a reraise gives you a chance to win the pot immediately and fold out some hands that you coinflip with. It also gives you initiative allowing you to take down the pot postflop a large majority of the time, even when you miss. If you get 4bet here, carefully examine your opponent and his actions. If it fits with ONLY AA and KK fold. Otherwise you should probably move all in/call all in if you have less than 100bb.
Now back to our third option, opening the pot for a raise.
Raising first in gives you the chance to win the blinds immediately (never a terrible result, it's always better to win a small pot than lose a big one), get called by hands you beat (and therefore raise for value), fold out pocket pairs occasionally (and you gain because you will miss often), and build a pot if you hit. Aggresive poker is winning poker.
There are 3 results if you raise.
Everyone folds.
1+ people call.
Someone raises, possibly there are callers of either raise.
If someone calls, you should probably continuation bet. However postflop play is beyond the scope of this post.
Someone raises.
This is where it gets interesting. You could call, shove, or reraise less than all in.
The last two options are pretty close to the same for AK. If you reraise less than all in, you're going to be pot committed to call a shove nearly everytime. If they just call, you're probably going to cbet all in on every flop.
Now lets us examine calling vs shoving.
/puts on nerd glasses
Everything beyond this is a copy and paste of a word article I written previously. It's a rather intesive analysis of 4bet shoving AK vs calling a reraise with it.
----------
This examines the merits of 4 bet shoving AKo preflop, opposed to calling with it. It does not examine whether or not AK should be 4bet for less than 100bb compared to shoving it.
I used a very simple formula of outs x 2% per card on the flop. I couldn’t remember the exact numbers, but it's pretty close to 2% I think.
This is why I 4bet shove AK, feel free to slaughter my argument or point out flaws in my math.
My 3bet range at 100nl was like 77+, AJs+, AQ+, KQs, A2s-A5s sometimes, some suited connectors.
His range probably isn’t that wide, but let’s says it is. (so we can analyze what we do with AK vs different hands) And we can figure out why we 4 bet AK.
Lets say you open to 3.5bb, he makes it 12bb.
It folds back to you. Pot is currently 17bb. Rake is 6bb at 50nl when stacks get in.
This is where it gets interesting. We're going to group the different hands and analyze how AK plays against them.
Group 1 - Dominated hands; AJ, AQ, KQ (and other dominated Aces and Kings)
When you push for 100bb, you WANT a call from these hands. Poker stove says your equity is 68.875% against this range of dominated hands. That means when all the chips go in the middle you get back 69% of the 195 bb pot. (The missing big blinds are the rake. At $100+, I'm going to say they rake $3 since most poker rooms cap at $3) that means when they call you win 135.93bb, or a profit of 36bb. However they usually don’t call when you 4bet push with these hands, so you net a 17 bb profit.
But if you want to play against these hands, why aren't you calling? We raise for value here. We also don't want to miss and suddenly try to figure out whether we are good vs a whiffed AJ, or drawing to 3 outs vs KK or facing a flush draw from T9s. Cramming preflop gives you control of the hand again, and prevents you from making a postflop mistake.
Against Group 1, pushing gets you an expected net of 17bb assuming you are never called.
Group 2 – Pocket Pairs lower than QQ; 22-QQ, and also AK.
When you push for 100bb, you want your opponent to fold. When they fold you win 17bb. On average you will lose 9bb when you are called. That means if they fold 53% of the time this is a +EV play of .01bb. Usually they will fold more than that. If they only reraise TT – QQ, when you 4bet shove, most people will find it extremely difficult to call with TT or JJ. Your raise represents QQ+, AK. Against that range JJ and TT only have 36% equity, and your large overbet shove means that they need to fold as they are now priced out.
Usually they will fold QQ some of the time too. Generally you can expect to get called about these percentages. TT 20%, JJ 50%, QQ 85%. That’s fewer than the 53% (actually its 51.666% repeating) you need to turn a profit, and it gets even better if they raise hands lower than TT.
Against group 2, your expected return is about break even, assuming they call at the exact above ratio, 53%, and never 3bet pocket pairs less than TT.
Group 3 - Suited Connectors
against 76s we have 59% equity. When we push we expect to get back 115bb and risk 96bb. We profit 19bb, which is marginally different from the 17bb we expect to pick up if he folds. (and trust me unless he's terrible, he's folding)
Against group 3 – expected profit of 17bb.
Group 4 - AA and KK.
They aren't folding and our equity here is a terrible 19.636%. If you call it's because you dont want to stack off to these hands. We only get back 38bb putting our play at a -58bb if they have these hands. specifically against KK we have an expected return of 60bb, and against AA we have a return of 15.6bb
Against Group 4 we have an expected loss of 58bb.
While this looks terrible, keep in mind that some catagories are far more likely than others.
Now none of this factors in postflop play. Let's do that now.
If we call, AND plan to c/f a whiffed flop.
Group 1. Dominated hands.
If we connect with our 2 outer and stack them, that's awesome and our best case scenario. The odds of flopping one of the two remaining aces is about 12.5% (same odds as flopping a set, so keep that in mind, since that’s basically what we're aiming to do.)
Generally a TAG will fold if they flop air, and get their cbet when we c/r in a reraised pot. If we call, we should check to them to pick up a cbet when they have air. So we connect with one of our 5 outs about 30% of the time. We will win the 17bb in the pot + a cbet ranging from 10-17bb. We can say 13 for ease of calculation. When they miss, you hit you win 30bb.
So one of 3 things happens.
1) You both hit top pair, and you stack them. You profit 13.5bb (the money you invest that you lose if you don't win) + 100bb (their stack) - 6bb for the rake. That's a net of 107.5bb. It happens 12.5% of the time so let's do some math.
107.5*0.125= 13.5bb when we call for this scenario. That doesn't include the times they outdraw you either.
Results for scenario 1: 13.5bb
2) You connect, they don’t, you win 30bb. This is pretty straight forward. We c/r their bet they fold. We win 30bb. This will happen the other 18.5% of the time we connect. 30*0.185 = 5.55bb
3) We miss, and c/f. We lose 7.5bb. This will happen about 70% of the time. -8.5 * 0.7 = -5.95bb.
Add them up you get 12.9bb for calling against this group.
So when they have a dominated hand, our expect return is 4bb less than if we shove.
group 2. Coinflips. i.e. Pocket pairs
There are 2 sub groups actually. AK and 77-QQ.
We run the same scenarios
vs AK
1) We hit, they hit. When they have AK, we have 4 outs to hit to a CHOP (this obv changes if we have AKs, but I'm going to ignore that for now). This will happen about 24% of the time. When this happens we get back half of 195bb, or 97.5bb for a profit of 1.5bb 24% of the time. 0.36bb profit. Not too hot but at least its profit.
2) We both miss. We fold to his cbet, he wins a pot we could've chopped. -7.5bb* 76% = -5.7bb when we miss.
So when he has AK we have a net loss of 5.34bb. Not too good. Especially considering when we shove and he folds, we win 17bb and when he calls we have a marginal win of 1.5bb
Pocket pairs.
1) We hit, they hit. We lose our stack. We will hit about 36% of the time. To do that, we need to use one of the possible cards on the flop. So they have two cards to spike a set with two outs. It will happen 8% of the time WE hit.
So 0.36*0.08 = 2.88% One in 40 times this will happen. We can expect to lose our entire stack (after all we called to get AI on a flop we hit)
This means we lose 96bb. 96*0.0288 = -2.76bb
2) We hit, they miss. We c/r and while they may stack off QQ on a king high flop, I'm just going to assume, they don't to keep the math simpler. We will win 30bb. This will happen 36% of the time, except for the times they have a set. So 0.36-0.0288 = .3312 33.12% of the time we win 30bb.
30*0.3312 = 9.936bb.
3) You miss. You lose 8.5bb 64% of the time. 8.5*0.64= -5.44bb
When he has a pocket pair under KK you win 1.736bb.
Slightly better than pushing.
There are 9 combos of AK, and 30 combos of 77 – QQ.
The net is (0.23 * -5.34bb) + ( 0.769 * 1.736bb) = 0.10678bb
Practically 0, much like shoving.
Group 3 - Suited Connectors,
1) You hit, they hit better. It won't happen too often. And sometimes you'll out draw them. The equity calculation for it isn't too different from the pocket pair issue, so I'll just assume it's the same. Sorry my math skills just aren't up to figure this out right now. We can drop this a little bit since when they flop two pair we can draw out much easier.
-2.5bb.
2) We hit, they miss (something they won't call a check raise with. say less than top pair) We win 30bb. This will happen about 36% (less the chance of them flopping better which is covered above) of the time so same the same calculations as pocket pairs here. 9.936bb.
3) This is the same as pocket pairs too. -5.44bb
When he has a suited connector you win 1.99 bb.
(The difference in EV between group 2 and 3 is because AK is not in this catagory)
4)AA and KK.
I'm going to deal with them seperately.
Cowboys (KK)
3 scenarios.
1) You spike the 4th King. This obviously the worst case scenario for you since you will lose your entire stack. If you flop Aces and Kings you will catch on him 8% of the time, but don't count on it. The case king will come out 6% of the time. When it does you lose your stack, so that’s -96bb for you. -96bb * 0.06 = -5.76bb
2) The Ace magnets screw him over again.
You will flop one of your 3 outs about 18% of the time. When you do, you can probably expect him to cbet and you can snap it; 30bb for you. 30*0.18 = 5.4bb
(On a related note, checking behind kings when an ace hits is a good idea. I've read some very interesting theory on that.)
3) You miss. You lose 8.5bb 76% of the time. 8.5*0.76 = -6.46bb
Against kings you have an expected loss of -6.82bb
This is 53bb less than we can expect to lose if we shove.
Pocket Rockets (AA)
1) You hit, you're screwed. When he has AA, you will hit one of your 4 cards and lose your entire stack 24% of the time. -96 * 0.24 = -23.04bb
2) Thank god, you miss. You only lose 8.5bb 76% of the time.
8.5*0.76 = -6.46bb
We lose 29.5bb vs AA.
If we shove, we lose 80.4bb
against the group we have an expected loss of 43.61bb
In TOTAL.
If we call
Group 1) Dominated hands = 12.9 bb
Group 2) AK = -5.34 bb PP < KK = 1.73 bb
Net = 0.10 bb
Group 3) Suited Connectors
76s = 1.99 bb.
Group 4) AA and KK = -43.61bb
If we shove
Group 1) Dominated hands. They almost always fold, and it’s better for us if they call, so we will assume they won’t. 17bb.
Group 2) AK = 1.5bb if he always calls. He won’t ALWAYS call. PP = 0.01 bb if he folds exactly 53% of the time. In reality, fold more than that.
Group 3) Suited Connectors. Better for us if he calls so we’ll assume he won’t. 17bb.
Group 4) AA and KK. We get killed here and have an expect net loss of -58bb.
Compare the groups and think for a bit. Remember than AA and KK is less likely since we have an Ace and a King. In fact the odds of either is cut in half.
OK! So now that is out of the way.
Now the real question at hand, is what is he ACTUALLY 3betting us with. Just what is his range?
If it’s just TT+, and AJ+, there are 18 combinations of TT-QQ, 6 Combinations of AA-KK, and 24 combinations of AJ and AQ, and 9 combinations of AK. There are 57 combinations total.This means…AJ and AQ = 42.1% of the time. AK = 15.7% of the time.TT-QQ = 31.5% of the time.AA-KK = 10.5% of the time.
If we call we win ((0.421*12.9)+(0.157*-5.34)+(0.31*1.73)+(0.105*-43.61) = 0.54977bb
A net gain of 0.55bb
Now for cramming.
To figure the equity of shoving, we should figure how often pocket pairs fold here. I’d say TT folds about 90% of the time, JJ folds 60% of the time and QQ folds 10% of the time. Is that a fair assumption? Together that means they fold 53.3% of the time. How convenient. Now honestly ask yourself if you’re facing this kind of action, how often would you actually call with these hands.
But for now we’ll assume it’s a break even proposition. When it’s up against AK, how often does he fold that? Let’s say he folds 25% of the time. So 17*0.25 + 1.5*0.75= 5.375bb
So onto our calculation. We’ll assume he always folds hands we dominate because that’s our worst case scenario for those hands.If we shove, we win ((0.421*17)+(0.157*5.375)+(0.31*0)+(0.105*-58) = 1.910875
A net gain of 1.91bb.
This shows that for the exact same range, 4 bet shoving with 100bb is over 3x as profitable as calling.The question shouldn’t be do I call or 4 bet, the question is should I 4 bet or shove?However that’s a question for another day.
The tighter his range is the more you should consider folding, BUT not calling. There is no hand range that calling with AK is superior to raising or folding it assuming he is a decent player.
However, given his postflop play, it is possible that calling is superior. However it’s rare to find opponents that stack off with less than top pair, and other leaks that make calling AK superior, such as never cbetting when they miss.
This whole article was done under the assumption you have 100bb stacks (common online) and you are out of position. As stack sizes increase, shoving AK because less profitable. The opposite is also true. This is why folding AK in tournaments preflop to a 3bet that is often a huge mistake.
As a note, I realize in this post I've been a little inconsistent with bet sizes, I said 3.5bb as original raise, yet I mentioned losing 96bb not 96.5bb. Sorry for this, but I'm not up to fixing it for now. The difference is negligible. All of my calculations were based off AKo and AKs combined btw.
See you across the felt.
Bryce
You get a tl;dr warning here. (too long, don't read) This is the longest post I've written so far and by a good margin.
The dreaded Ace King. Dreaded because of how much trouble it gives beginners. In reality, AK is one of the harder hands to play in the game. Much of the time, it is a favorite preflop or very minor dog. But postflop Ace King, rarely makes more than one pair. However, there is sometimes a simple solution to playing Big Slick that makes life easy on you. And luckily, it's often the most profitable play you can make.
Push all in.
Hahaha... That probably needs some explanation.
When you have AK and are facing a reraise preflop, you should often move all in. You are only dominated by AA and KK, flip with QQ-22 and beat all other hands. In fact, you dominate nearly every non-pocketpair that would call a preflop all in. However, as nearly everything in poker, this play is player dependant. Obviously if you are against someone who only reraises AA and KK, you shouldn't make this play. Against someone who reraises a very wide range of hands and commits a lot of money postflop, it could be better to trap.
Regardless quite often it's correct to reraise all in with AK depending on your stack size. If you have 100bb or less it's often profitable. I wrote up a lot of information on it that I'll add at the end.
Let's examine all our options with AK.
Assuming we are at a full 9 handed table and are UTG. Our opponents are not very strong and have stacks ranging for 20bb to 200bb. You cover everyone at the table. First let's examine our options and lay out a plan for each one.
Fold. Not happening. AK is way to good to be folding UTG. If you fold this, what do you play? Folding AK here is a big mistake.
Call. An interesting play that gives you some options when the action comes back around. The danger is that the action might not come back you and you'll play a limped pot with AK multiway. Not really stellar, but assuming you can get away from it postflop, you can probably still turn a profit postflop.
On the other hand, if someone raises, a new set of options arises. You could call and see a flop, you could reraise or you could fold.
Again folding is almost never correct, you should definitely at least call unless they are extremely tight as in they raise more hands that dominate AK than hands that don't.
Calling can put you in a tricky spot. This is partly because if they have an Ace or King it's less likely you'll hit and therefore you'll miss more often. If they don't they aren't likely to give you action unless they can beat top pair. Your best case scenario is for them to have a dominated hand and give you action, but the odds of that are about the same odds as flopping a set, since you have 2 cards to improve both your hands simultaneously. Doesn't look to hot, but you should call occasionally to mix up your game.
Raising is probably the best choice. Now that you limped in and trapped some money in the middle, a reraise gives you a chance to win the pot immediately and fold out some hands that you coinflip with. It also gives you initiative allowing you to take down the pot postflop a large majority of the time, even when you miss. If you get 4bet here, carefully examine your opponent and his actions. If it fits with ONLY AA and KK fold. Otherwise you should probably move all in/call all in if you have less than 100bb.
Now back to our third option, opening the pot for a raise.
Raising first in gives you the chance to win the blinds immediately (never a terrible result, it's always better to win a small pot than lose a big one), get called by hands you beat (and therefore raise for value), fold out pocket pairs occasionally (and you gain because you will miss often), and build a pot if you hit. Aggresive poker is winning poker.
There are 3 results if you raise.
Everyone folds.
1+ people call.
Someone raises, possibly there are callers of either raise.
If someone calls, you should probably continuation bet. However postflop play is beyond the scope of this post.
Someone raises.
This is where it gets interesting. You could call, shove, or reraise less than all in.
The last two options are pretty close to the same for AK. If you reraise less than all in, you're going to be pot committed to call a shove nearly everytime. If they just call, you're probably going to cbet all in on every flop.
Now lets us examine calling vs shoving.
/puts on nerd glasses
Everything beyond this is a copy and paste of a word article I written previously. It's a rather intesive analysis of 4bet shoving AK vs calling a reraise with it.
----------
This examines the merits of 4 bet shoving AKo preflop, opposed to calling with it. It does not examine whether or not AK should be 4bet for less than 100bb compared to shoving it.
I used a very simple formula of outs x 2% per card on the flop. I couldn’t remember the exact numbers, but it's pretty close to 2% I think.
This is why I 4bet shove AK, feel free to slaughter my argument or point out flaws in my math.
My 3bet range at 100nl was like 77+, AJs+, AQ+, KQs, A2s-A5s sometimes, some suited connectors.
His range probably isn’t that wide, but let’s says it is. (so we can analyze what we do with AK vs different hands) And we can figure out why we 4 bet AK.
Lets say you open to 3.5bb, he makes it 12bb.
It folds back to you. Pot is currently 17bb. Rake is 6bb at 50nl when stacks get in.
This is where it gets interesting. We're going to group the different hands and analyze how AK plays against them.
Group 1 - Dominated hands; AJ, AQ, KQ (and other dominated Aces and Kings)
When you push for 100bb, you WANT a call from these hands. Poker stove says your equity is 68.875% against this range of dominated hands. That means when all the chips go in the middle you get back 69% of the 195 bb pot. (The missing big blinds are the rake. At $100+, I'm going to say they rake $3 since most poker rooms cap at $3) that means when they call you win 135.93bb, or a profit of 36bb. However they usually don’t call when you 4bet push with these hands, so you net a 17 bb profit.
But if you want to play against these hands, why aren't you calling? We raise for value here. We also don't want to miss and suddenly try to figure out whether we are good vs a whiffed AJ, or drawing to 3 outs vs KK or facing a flush draw from T9s. Cramming preflop gives you control of the hand again, and prevents you from making a postflop mistake.
Against Group 1, pushing gets you an expected net of 17bb assuming you are never called.
Group 2 – Pocket Pairs lower than QQ; 22-QQ, and also AK.
When you push for 100bb, you want your opponent to fold. When they fold you win 17bb. On average you will lose 9bb when you are called. That means if they fold 53% of the time this is a +EV play of .01bb. Usually they will fold more than that. If they only reraise TT – QQ, when you 4bet shove, most people will find it extremely difficult to call with TT or JJ. Your raise represents QQ+, AK. Against that range JJ and TT only have 36% equity, and your large overbet shove means that they need to fold as they are now priced out.
Usually they will fold QQ some of the time too. Generally you can expect to get called about these percentages. TT 20%, JJ 50%, QQ 85%. That’s fewer than the 53% (actually its 51.666% repeating) you need to turn a profit, and it gets even better if they raise hands lower than TT.
Against group 2, your expected return is about break even, assuming they call at the exact above ratio, 53%, and never 3bet pocket pairs less than TT.
Group 3 - Suited Connectors
against 76s we have 59% equity. When we push we expect to get back 115bb and risk 96bb. We profit 19bb, which is marginally different from the 17bb we expect to pick up if he folds. (and trust me unless he's terrible, he's folding)
Against group 3 – expected profit of 17bb.
Group 4 - AA and KK.
They aren't folding and our equity here is a terrible 19.636%. If you call it's because you dont want to stack off to these hands. We only get back 38bb putting our play at a -58bb if they have these hands. specifically against KK we have an expected return of 60bb, and against AA we have a return of 15.6bb
Against Group 4 we have an expected loss of 58bb.
While this looks terrible, keep in mind that some catagories are far more likely than others.
Now none of this factors in postflop play. Let's do that now.
If we call, AND plan to c/f a whiffed flop.
Group 1. Dominated hands.
If we connect with our 2 outer and stack them, that's awesome and our best case scenario. The odds of flopping one of the two remaining aces is about 12.5% (same odds as flopping a set, so keep that in mind, since that’s basically what we're aiming to do.)
Generally a TAG will fold if they flop air, and get their cbet when we c/r in a reraised pot. If we call, we should check to them to pick up a cbet when they have air. So we connect with one of our 5 outs about 30% of the time. We will win the 17bb in the pot + a cbet ranging from 10-17bb. We can say 13 for ease of calculation. When they miss, you hit you win 30bb.
So one of 3 things happens.
1) You both hit top pair, and you stack them. You profit 13.5bb (the money you invest that you lose if you don't win) + 100bb (their stack) - 6bb for the rake. That's a net of 107.5bb. It happens 12.5% of the time so let's do some math.
107.5*0.125= 13.5bb when we call for this scenario. That doesn't include the times they outdraw you either.
Results for scenario 1: 13.5bb
2) You connect, they don’t, you win 30bb. This is pretty straight forward. We c/r their bet they fold. We win 30bb. This will happen the other 18.5% of the time we connect. 30*0.185 = 5.55bb
3) We miss, and c/f. We lose 7.5bb. This will happen about 70% of the time. -8.5 * 0.7 = -5.95bb.
Add them up you get 12.9bb for calling against this group.
So when they have a dominated hand, our expect return is 4bb less than if we shove.
group 2. Coinflips. i.e. Pocket pairs
There are 2 sub groups actually. AK and 77-QQ.
We run the same scenarios
vs AK
1) We hit, they hit. When they have AK, we have 4 outs to hit to a CHOP (this obv changes if we have AKs, but I'm going to ignore that for now). This will happen about 24% of the time. When this happens we get back half of 195bb, or 97.5bb for a profit of 1.5bb 24% of the time. 0.36bb profit. Not too hot but at least its profit.
2) We both miss. We fold to his cbet, he wins a pot we could've chopped. -7.5bb* 76% = -5.7bb when we miss.
So when he has AK we have a net loss of 5.34bb. Not too good. Especially considering when we shove and he folds, we win 17bb and when he calls we have a marginal win of 1.5bb
Pocket pairs.
1) We hit, they hit. We lose our stack. We will hit about 36% of the time. To do that, we need to use one of the possible cards on the flop. So they have two cards to spike a set with two outs. It will happen 8% of the time WE hit.
So 0.36*0.08 = 2.88% One in 40 times this will happen. We can expect to lose our entire stack (after all we called to get AI on a flop we hit)
This means we lose 96bb. 96*0.0288 = -2.76bb
2) We hit, they miss. We c/r and while they may stack off QQ on a king high flop, I'm just going to assume, they don't to keep the math simpler. We will win 30bb. This will happen 36% of the time, except for the times they have a set. So 0.36-0.0288 = .3312 33.12% of the time we win 30bb.
30*0.3312 = 9.936bb.
3) You miss. You lose 8.5bb 64% of the time. 8.5*0.64= -5.44bb
When he has a pocket pair under KK you win 1.736bb.
Slightly better than pushing.
There are 9 combos of AK, and 30 combos of 77 – QQ.
The net is (0.23 * -5.34bb) + ( 0.769 * 1.736bb) = 0.10678bb
Practically 0, much like shoving.
Group 3 - Suited Connectors,
1) You hit, they hit better. It won't happen too often. And sometimes you'll out draw them. The equity calculation for it isn't too different from the pocket pair issue, so I'll just assume it's the same. Sorry my math skills just aren't up to figure this out right now. We can drop this a little bit since when they flop two pair we can draw out much easier.
-2.5bb.
2) We hit, they miss (something they won't call a check raise with. say less than top pair) We win 30bb. This will happen about 36% (less the chance of them flopping better which is covered above) of the time so same the same calculations as pocket pairs here. 9.936bb.
3) This is the same as pocket pairs too. -5.44bb
When he has a suited connector you win 1.99 bb.
(The difference in EV between group 2 and 3 is because AK is not in this catagory)
4)AA and KK.
I'm going to deal with them seperately.
Cowboys (KK)
3 scenarios.
1) You spike the 4th King. This obviously the worst case scenario for you since you will lose your entire stack. If you flop Aces and Kings you will catch on him 8% of the time, but don't count on it. The case king will come out 6% of the time. When it does you lose your stack, so that’s -96bb for you. -96bb * 0.06 = -5.76bb
2) The Ace magnets screw him over again.
You will flop one of your 3 outs about 18% of the time. When you do, you can probably expect him to cbet and you can snap it; 30bb for you. 30*0.18 = 5.4bb
(On a related note, checking behind kings when an ace hits is a good idea. I've read some very interesting theory on that.)
3) You miss. You lose 8.5bb 76% of the time. 8.5*0.76 = -6.46bb
Against kings you have an expected loss of -6.82bb
This is 53bb less than we can expect to lose if we shove.
Pocket Rockets (AA)
1) You hit, you're screwed. When he has AA, you will hit one of your 4 cards and lose your entire stack 24% of the time. -96 * 0.24 = -23.04bb
2) Thank god, you miss. You only lose 8.5bb 76% of the time.
8.5*0.76 = -6.46bb
We lose 29.5bb vs AA.
If we shove, we lose 80.4bb
against the group we have an expected loss of 43.61bb
In TOTAL.
If we call
Group 1) Dominated hands = 12.9 bb
Group 2) AK = -5.34 bb PP < KK = 1.73 bb
Net = 0.10 bb
Group 3) Suited Connectors
76s = 1.99 bb.
Group 4) AA and KK = -43.61bb
If we shove
Group 1) Dominated hands. They almost always fold, and it’s better for us if they call, so we will assume they won’t. 17bb.
Group 2) AK = 1.5bb if he always calls. He won’t ALWAYS call. PP = 0.01 bb if he folds exactly 53% of the time. In reality, fold more than that.
Group 3) Suited Connectors. Better for us if he calls so we’ll assume he won’t. 17bb.
Group 4) AA and KK. We get killed here and have an expect net loss of -58bb.
Compare the groups and think for a bit. Remember than AA and KK is less likely since we have an Ace and a King. In fact the odds of either is cut in half.
OK! So now that is out of the way.
Now the real question at hand, is what is he ACTUALLY 3betting us with. Just what is his range?
If it’s just TT+, and AJ+, there are 18 combinations of TT-QQ, 6 Combinations of AA-KK, and 24 combinations of AJ and AQ, and 9 combinations of AK. There are 57 combinations total.This means…AJ and AQ = 42.1% of the time. AK = 15.7% of the time.TT-QQ = 31.5% of the time.AA-KK = 10.5% of the time.
If we call we win ((0.421*12.9)+(0.157*-5.34)+(0.31*1.73)+(0.105*-43.61) = 0.54977bb
A net gain of 0.55bb
Now for cramming.
To figure the equity of shoving, we should figure how often pocket pairs fold here. I’d say TT folds about 90% of the time, JJ folds 60% of the time and QQ folds 10% of the time. Is that a fair assumption? Together that means they fold 53.3% of the time. How convenient. Now honestly ask yourself if you’re facing this kind of action, how often would you actually call with these hands.
But for now we’ll assume it’s a break even proposition. When it’s up against AK, how often does he fold that? Let’s say he folds 25% of the time. So 17*0.25 + 1.5*0.75= 5.375bb
So onto our calculation. We’ll assume he always folds hands we dominate because that’s our worst case scenario for those hands.If we shove, we win ((0.421*17)+(0.157*5.375)+(0.31*0)+(0.105*-58) = 1.910875
A net gain of 1.91bb.
This shows that for the exact same range, 4 bet shoving with 100bb is over 3x as profitable as calling.The question shouldn’t be do I call or 4 bet, the question is should I 4 bet or shove?However that’s a question for another day.
The tighter his range is the more you should consider folding, BUT not calling. There is no hand range that calling with AK is superior to raising or folding it assuming he is a decent player.
However, given his postflop play, it is possible that calling is superior. However it’s rare to find opponents that stack off with less than top pair, and other leaks that make calling AK superior, such as never cbetting when they miss.
This whole article was done under the assumption you have 100bb stacks (common online) and you are out of position. As stack sizes increase, shoving AK because less profitable. The opposite is also true. This is why folding AK in tournaments preflop to a 3bet that is often a huge mistake.
As a note, I realize in this post I've been a little inconsistent with bet sizes, I said 3.5bb as original raise, yet I mentioned losing 96bb not 96.5bb. Sorry for this, but I'm not up to fixing it for now. The difference is negligible. All of my calculations were based off AKo and AKs combined btw.
See you across the felt.
Bryce
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
Progress Post #15: Bronchitis sucks, Propping and Staking
So as of now, I'm still coughing out my lungs. Almost literally.
It seems I came down with a viral infection, and my lungs are inflamed. Therefore I have Bronchitis, and cough mucus out of my lungs an average of 30 times a day. Fun times.
At least it's better than pneumonia.
I got my rakeback on FTP and busted it trying to sat into the FTOPS ME. On the other hand, I've been killing this other site called PokerWorld. It usually has 500 people logged on at once.
Pokerstars usually has 100,000.
Gives you an idea how small the site is.
Since my last post
Live Cash Games: +$40
Online Cash Games: +$1837
Tournaments: -$389
Net since last post: +$1,488
Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: +$3,109
Online cash games: +$784.93
Online Tournaments: +$2084.32
Net winnings this year: +$5,978.25
I'm trying to bank 10k by the end of the summer. We'll see if I get there.
I'm propping on Pokerworld. A prop is someone who is paid to play. Online poker rooms do this by offering high levels of rakeback. It actually makes perfect sense for them. And I'm loving the 75% rakeback I'm getting. Still I think I'd prefer Full Tilt, as the game selection is infinitely better.
Usually only small rooms offer propping. Bigger poker rooms have enough players that there is no need. They usually still offer rakeback though. Check the blog archive for details on rakeback.
I've also started trying out staking. It's interesting. Staking is when one person fronts a buyin for another into a cash game or tournament. Assuming the "Horse" or staked player wins, they split the profits in a pre determined agreement. It's a massively +ev scenario for the Horse who has no risk. The staker is offered the ability to earn money on his money, assuming he stakes good horses.
Usually the staker requires "cake" which is kind of like a loan. It's best explained in an example.
Staker A stakes Horse B into a $30 tournament. Horse B busts on the first hand set over set.
Due to their agreement, Horse B owes Staker A $30 in cake. However he is not required to pay this unless Staker A stakes Horse B again, and Horse B turns a profit.
Later Staker A stakes Horse B into a $50 tournament. This time Horse B wins and takes down $5500, at an agreed 50% split.
First Staker A gets back $50, which is the buyin. Then he gets $30 in cake, to cover previous busted stakes. Then they split the remaining $5,420 at 50% each.
Cake is meant so that stakeing a +ev player will always be +ev for both the staker and the horse.
Jeff has started staking me online into some tourneys on FTP. To date I've turned a profit for him, albeit a small one.
I've also started trying out staking on Parttimepoker.com although it's rather hard to build a reputation.
I'm gonna try to grind out a hundred a day for the rest of the summer. We'll see how it goes. Obviously, I can't post a winning day every day, but a $200 day would count for 2. School starts back up at the end of August, so assuming I grind 100 a day, I should have won around $7.5k
Wish me luck, it always helps.
See you across the felt.
Bryce
It seems I came down with a viral infection, and my lungs are inflamed. Therefore I have Bronchitis, and cough mucus out of my lungs an average of 30 times a day. Fun times.
At least it's better than pneumonia.
I got my rakeback on FTP and busted it trying to sat into the FTOPS ME. On the other hand, I've been killing this other site called PokerWorld. It usually has 500 people logged on at once.
Pokerstars usually has 100,000.
Gives you an idea how small the site is.
Since my last post
Live Cash Games: +$40
Online Cash Games: +$1837
Tournaments: -$389
Net since last post: +$1,488
Winnings this year to date.
Live Cash Games: +$3,109
Online cash games: +$784.93
Online Tournaments: +$2084.32
Net winnings this year: +$5,978.25
I'm trying to bank 10k by the end of the summer. We'll see if I get there.
I'm propping on Pokerworld. A prop is someone who is paid to play. Online poker rooms do this by offering high levels of rakeback. It actually makes perfect sense for them. And I'm loving the 75% rakeback I'm getting. Still I think I'd prefer Full Tilt, as the game selection is infinitely better.
Usually only small rooms offer propping. Bigger poker rooms have enough players that there is no need. They usually still offer rakeback though. Check the blog archive for details on rakeback.
I've also started trying out staking. It's interesting. Staking is when one person fronts a buyin for another into a cash game or tournament. Assuming the "Horse" or staked player wins, they split the profits in a pre determined agreement. It's a massively +ev scenario for the Horse who has no risk. The staker is offered the ability to earn money on his money, assuming he stakes good horses.
Usually the staker requires "cake" which is kind of like a loan. It's best explained in an example.
Staker A stakes Horse B into a $30 tournament. Horse B busts on the first hand set over set.
Due to their agreement, Horse B owes Staker A $30 in cake. However he is not required to pay this unless Staker A stakes Horse B again, and Horse B turns a profit.
Later Staker A stakes Horse B into a $50 tournament. This time Horse B wins and takes down $5500, at an agreed 50% split.
First Staker A gets back $50, which is the buyin. Then he gets $30 in cake, to cover previous busted stakes. Then they split the remaining $5,420 at 50% each.
Cake is meant so that stakeing a +ev player will always be +ev for both the staker and the horse.
Jeff has started staking me online into some tourneys on FTP. To date I've turned a profit for him, albeit a small one.
I've also started trying out staking on Parttimepoker.com although it's rather hard to build a reputation.
I'm gonna try to grind out a hundred a day for the rest of the summer. We'll see how it goes. Obviously, I can't post a winning day every day, but a $200 day would count for 2. School starts back up at the end of August, so assuming I grind 100 a day, I should have won around $7.5k
Wish me luck, it always helps.
See you across the felt.
Bryce
Monday, May 12, 2008
No Limit Strategy #3: Don't play Ace Rag. (or King rag, or Queen rag, or Jack Rag...)
One of a novice player's biggest leaks is playing hands with poor kickers. People should generally stick to quality hands.
I was visiting my dad today. He installed the Texas Hold'Em application on Facebook.
He sat down at a 2/4 game and bought in for 358. (An interesting amount to say the least.) His first hand he gets A6o. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps. I advise him to fold, but he calls saying, "I just want to see a flop." MP2 raises to 8, HJ folds, CO makes it 48.
And I told him, this is why you fold. Because now you commited money to the pot where you don't know the action behind you, are out of position, and don't know where you stand. You know you are probably beat, but by what?
Regardless he decides to call the 48, as does the BB, UTG, and UTG+1. MP2 makes it 114. CO calls, as does everyone else. My dad almost folded at this point, but called anyways. I mentioned he is basically pot commited to call at this point because there is 600 in and you only have to call 70 more.
Flop is As 9d 6s.
How lucky.
As it turns out, my dad pushed all in for his remaining 244, and got 3 calls, and the BB's J4s took the pot. He was also up against ATo, and T7o.
What went wrong?
First he commited money with a hand that plays poorly in a multiway pot. It's very unlikely one pair will win when you have 6 people heading to the flop. Given how loose the game is there is no reason to be playing a hand like A6o. You are rewarding their loose play by giving yourself difficult decisions for the remainder of the hand.
Even if you catch two pair, you can still be beaten by a straight or flush draw, which someone is very likely to have picked up on the flop. When you catch one pair, you will often be beaten by a better hand, and if you aren't it's likely you won't get any action. Since you have a lot of opponents stealing is nearly impossible.
Playing offsuit face-rag hands (hands like K2, Q6, A8, J5, or basically hands that contain a face card and a non connecting card.) is begging for trouble. A lot of the time, you will be beaten. Sometimes you will be dominated. And when you connect with the low card, often you won't know if you're good or not. So you're really playing a hand with no virtues. When you become an extremely high calibar player you may be able to realize a profit playing these hands in only VERY specific circumstances.
While this idea breaks down a little in tournaments (particulary with Ax, because when you are short stacked any Ace is valuable.), in cash games this idea is PARAMOUNT. I would strongly suggest that 99%+ of all players should fold hands that are unconnected, unsuited, and unpaired. Now connectedness doesn't have to be 98, but even 95 is connected, although not very closely. A hand that can make a straight with both it's hole cards, has a great deal more equity than one without. For example, in many situations A5 is far superior to A6 because of this issue. Where many people would assume A6 is the better hand because it is ranked higher, it's about how well it plays vs other people hands not other hands you could have. For example, I would much rather have QJo then A7o, despite the fact A7 is a "stronger hand."
This all funnels into a simple idea of what to play preflop.
There are 3 catagories of strength. You shouldn't play a hand that has none of these, and should aim to play hands that have 2 or 3. If a novice only played hands that had at least two of these qualities, they would probably be much better off.
1. Connectedness - 67, JT and even hands like Q8 are much superior to hands like K7 which have no connectedness.
2. Suited - Suited cards will only make a flush 6% of the time. That doesn't seem like a big gain, but when you make a flush you usually win the entire pot. If you take AKo against AA, you will only win about 9% of the time. But if you have AKs, that jumps to 15%. That's a gain of over 60% in equity.
3. Big Pair potential - This means making one pair that is likely to be best. AK has the highest big pair potential, because if it connects, it always has Top Pair, Top kicker. (TPTK) This is extremely valuable for the same reason K8 is a flawed hand. You can never be dominated by another unpaired hand, and could dominate someone else. If the flop comes out K83, and he has KQ, it's better to have AK then AA. This gives him fewer cards to improve to. Big pair potential is most contained in hands that have a strong chance of making top pair and it being best. That would mean, AT+, KJ+, and sometimes QJ. Most big pair hands also have connectedness.
Finally there are pocket pairs which are valuable for another reason.
Pocket pairs can make sets by catching a matching hole card. Sets are EXTREMELY powerful. Sets singlehandily win the most money for any kind of player. This is because sets tend to destroy other monster hands like top two pair. Even when up against a straight or flush, they only need to pair the board to evolve into a crushing full house. Sets are also disguised which strengthens their hand.
Premium pocketpairs JJ+ also have big pair value. When pocket pairs make an over pair to the board it's quite likely, they are the best hand. However, all pocketpairs have no value in connectedness or suitedness. Regardless much of the time, it's profitable to see a flop with pocketpairs in an attempt to catch a set, and only continuing with a set or an overpair.
My general guidelines for a beginning player. If no one has called or raised yet, it's generally best to raise yourself. If someone has raised in front of you, fold the weaker hands in the range.
In reality, most novices don't have the skill to play this many hands, so tightening up even further is suggested.
Assuming 9 handed game (if it's ten add one to EP, if it's 6 handed, there is two MP, two LP.)
In early position, EP (First 2 seats) : AK, AQ, AJs, AA - TT
- In English, Ace King, Ace Queen, Ace Jack suited, Tens and better.
In middle position, MP (next 3 seats): AT+, JTs+, KQ, 22+
- In English, Ace Ten through Ace King, Any two suited broadways, King Queen, any pocket pair
In late position, LP (next 2 seats) - 56s+, JT+, 22+
- In English, Any two broadways, 56 suited and better, any pocket pair
Small Blind, SB - complete (call the bb) with any hand that has one of three requirements. Raise with same hands from from LP if folded to.
Big Blind, BB - Check anything that you wouldn't raise from EP. Raise with the rest.
These guidelines are for novices. If you are having trouble with poker at the lower levels, I suggest trying this. Preflop is much simpler than postflop play, but by playing stronger hands preflop, you make it easier on yourself postflop.
good luck!
I'll see you across the felt soon.
- Bryce
I was visiting my dad today. He installed the Texas Hold'Em application on Facebook.
He sat down at a 2/4 game and bought in for 358. (An interesting amount to say the least.) His first hand he gets A6o. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps. I advise him to fold, but he calls saying, "I just want to see a flop." MP2 raises to 8, HJ folds, CO makes it 48.
And I told him, this is why you fold. Because now you commited money to the pot where you don't know the action behind you, are out of position, and don't know where you stand. You know you are probably beat, but by what?
Regardless he decides to call the 48, as does the BB, UTG, and UTG+1. MP2 makes it 114. CO calls, as does everyone else. My dad almost folded at this point, but called anyways. I mentioned he is basically pot commited to call at this point because there is 600 in and you only have to call 70 more.
Flop is As 9d 6s.
How lucky.
As it turns out, my dad pushed all in for his remaining 244, and got 3 calls, and the BB's J4s took the pot. He was also up against ATo, and T7o.
What went wrong?
First he commited money with a hand that plays poorly in a multiway pot. It's very unlikely one pair will win when you have 6 people heading to the flop. Given how loose the game is there is no reason to be playing a hand like A6o. You are rewarding their loose play by giving yourself difficult decisions for the remainder of the hand.
Even if you catch two pair, you can still be beaten by a straight or flush draw, which someone is very likely to have picked up on the flop. When you catch one pair, you will often be beaten by a better hand, and if you aren't it's likely you won't get any action. Since you have a lot of opponents stealing is nearly impossible.
Playing offsuit face-rag hands (hands like K2, Q6, A8, J5, or basically hands that contain a face card and a non connecting card.) is begging for trouble. A lot of the time, you will be beaten. Sometimes you will be dominated. And when you connect with the low card, often you won't know if you're good or not. So you're really playing a hand with no virtues. When you become an extremely high calibar player you may be able to realize a profit playing these hands in only VERY specific circumstances.
While this idea breaks down a little in tournaments (particulary with Ax, because when you are short stacked any Ace is valuable.), in cash games this idea is PARAMOUNT. I would strongly suggest that 99%+ of all players should fold hands that are unconnected, unsuited, and unpaired. Now connectedness doesn't have to be 98, but even 95 is connected, although not very closely. A hand that can make a straight with both it's hole cards, has a great deal more equity than one without. For example, in many situations A5 is far superior to A6 because of this issue. Where many people would assume A6 is the better hand because it is ranked higher, it's about how well it plays vs other people hands not other hands you could have. For example, I would much rather have QJo then A7o, despite the fact A7 is a "stronger hand."
This all funnels into a simple idea of what to play preflop.
There are 3 catagories of strength. You shouldn't play a hand that has none of these, and should aim to play hands that have 2 or 3. If a novice only played hands that had at least two of these qualities, they would probably be much better off.
1. Connectedness - 67, JT and even hands like Q8 are much superior to hands like K7 which have no connectedness.
2. Suited - Suited cards will only make a flush 6% of the time. That doesn't seem like a big gain, but when you make a flush you usually win the entire pot. If you take AKo against AA, you will only win about 9% of the time. But if you have AKs, that jumps to 15%. That's a gain of over 60% in equity.
3. Big Pair potential - This means making one pair that is likely to be best. AK has the highest big pair potential, because if it connects, it always has Top Pair, Top kicker. (TPTK) This is extremely valuable for the same reason K8 is a flawed hand. You can never be dominated by another unpaired hand, and could dominate someone else. If the flop comes out K83, and he has KQ, it's better to have AK then AA. This gives him fewer cards to improve to. Big pair potential is most contained in hands that have a strong chance of making top pair and it being best. That would mean, AT+, KJ+, and sometimes QJ. Most big pair hands also have connectedness.
Finally there are pocket pairs which are valuable for another reason.
Pocket pairs can make sets by catching a matching hole card. Sets are EXTREMELY powerful. Sets singlehandily win the most money for any kind of player. This is because sets tend to destroy other monster hands like top two pair. Even when up against a straight or flush, they only need to pair the board to evolve into a crushing full house. Sets are also disguised which strengthens their hand.
Premium pocketpairs JJ+ also have big pair value. When pocket pairs make an over pair to the board it's quite likely, they are the best hand. However, all pocketpairs have no value in connectedness or suitedness. Regardless much of the time, it's profitable to see a flop with pocketpairs in an attempt to catch a set, and only continuing with a set or an overpair.
My general guidelines for a beginning player. If no one has called or raised yet, it's generally best to raise yourself. If someone has raised in front of you, fold the weaker hands in the range.
In reality, most novices don't have the skill to play this many hands, so tightening up even further is suggested.
Assuming 9 handed game (if it's ten add one to EP, if it's 6 handed, there is two MP, two LP.)
In early position, EP (First 2 seats) : AK, AQ, AJs, AA - TT
- In English, Ace King, Ace Queen, Ace Jack suited, Tens and better.
In middle position, MP (next 3 seats): AT+, JTs+, KQ, 22+
- In English, Ace Ten through Ace King, Any two suited broadways, King Queen, any pocket pair
In late position, LP (next 2 seats) - 56s+, JT+, 22+
- In English, Any two broadways, 56 suited and better, any pocket pair
Small Blind, SB - complete (call the bb) with any hand that has one of three requirements. Raise with same hands from from LP if folded to.
Big Blind, BB - Check anything that you wouldn't raise from EP. Raise with the rest.
These guidelines are for novices. If you are having trouble with poker at the lower levels, I suggest trying this. Preflop is much simpler than postflop play, but by playing stronger hands preflop, you make it easier on yourself postflop.
good luck!
I'll see you across the felt soon.
- Bryce
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